Understanding the El Niño Costero of 2017: The Definition Problem and Challenges of Climate Forecasting and Disaster Responses
Understanding the El Niño Costero of 2017: The Definition Problem and Challenges of Climate Forecasting and Disaster Responses
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DOI：
10.1007/s13753-017-0151-8
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发表时间：
2017-12
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Iván J Ramírez;F. Briones
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Iván J Ramírez;F. Briones
这项初步研究审查了与2017年厄尔尼诺-科斯特罗(沿海)现象有关的气候预测和灾害应对的定义问题和挑战，该现象在没有预警的情况下迅速发展，并在秘鲁造成了灾难性影响。自1925年以来，这种局部化的厄尔尼诺现象从未被记录在案。初步审查表明，除了这次事件的特点(意外)外，政府的反应可能不充分(正如媒体报道的那样)，因为预报报告相互矛盾(美国和秘鲁)，这引发了水文气象辩论，扼杀了决策。部分原因是厄尔尼诺现象的定义问题，它可能导致不确定性，并影响人们对风险的感知，这取决于人们使用赤道太平洋的哪个区域来识别事件。秘鲁境内的一些地区在厄尔尼诺-科斯特罗来袭之前就经历了干旱，2015-2016年厄尔尼诺现象的影响比预期的要小，这使应对工作变得更加复杂。此外，新政府已经就位，这可能阻碍了行动。因此，厄尔尼诺·科斯特罗提供了值得注意的经验教训，不仅涉及预报信息，而且还涉及预报和灾害背景，这可能会影响对水文气象威胁的灾害应对。
This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Niño costero (coastal) of 2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru. Such a localized El Niño was not documented since 1925. An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event (surprise), government responses may have been inadequate (as media reported) because of conflicting forecast reports (U.S. and Peru), which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making. Partly to blame was the El Niño definition problem, which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk, depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event. Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the El Niño costero’s onset and impacts from the El Niño 2015–2016 were less than expected. Furthermore, a new government was in place, which may have hindered action. Thus, El Niño costero provides lessons to heed, not only with respect to the forecast information, but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.