Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era
Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era
复制标题
公元元年全球温度重建和模拟的一致的数十年变化
DOI：
10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0
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发表时间：
2019-08-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
von Gunten, Lucien
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Neukom, Raphael;Barboza, Luis A.;von Gunten, Lucien
数十年的地表温度变化可能是自然和人为因素强迫的，也可能是气候系统非强迫的。区分这些因子对于估计对多种气候强迫的敏感性和非强迫变率的幅度是必不可少的。在这里，我们提出了2,000年之久的全球平均温度重建使用七种不同的统计方法，从全球收集的温度敏感的古气候记录。我们的重建显示了同步的几十年温度波动，这些温度波动彼此一致，并且与整个共同时代的耦合模型相互比较项目第5阶段的完全强制千禧年模型模拟一致。工业化前（公元1300-1800年）的变化在几十年的时间尺度的很大一部分是由于火山气溶胶强迫。重建和模拟在非强迫性全球平均几十年温度变率的幅度上定性一致，从而增加了对这些时间尺度上未来气候变化预测的信心。20年和更长时间尺度的最大变暖趋势发生在二十世纪后半叶，突出了近几十年来变暖的不寻常特征。
Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300-1800 CE) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.