Local alliances and rivalries shape near-repeat terror activity of al-Qaeda, ISIS, and insurgents
Local alliances and rivalries shape near-repeat terror activity of al-Qaeda, ISIS, and insurgents
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1904418116
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发表时间：
2019-10-15
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
D'Orsogna, Maria R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chuang, Yao-Li;Ben-Asher, Noam;D'Orsogna, Maria R.
我们研究了基地组织、伊拉克和叙利亚伊斯兰国 (ISIS) 以及当地叛乱分子在通过应用于全球恐怖主义数据库的 k 均值聚类确定的六个地理区域中发动的恐怖袭击的时空相关性。所有接受调查的组织都表现出近乎重复的活动，即先前的袭击增加了同一组织在 20 公里内、平均 4（基地组织）至 10（伊斯兰国）周内再次发动袭击的可能性。近似响应活动（即某个组织的攻击引发另一个组织的进一步攻击）被发现取决于两者之间的对抗关系、中立关系或协作关系。当发生冲突时，当地叛乱分子对全球恐怖组织的袭击做出快速反应，而全球恐怖组织则延迟对当地叛乱分子的反应，从而导致不对称动态。当中立或结盟时，一个群体的攻击会增强另一群体的反应可能性，无论等级如何。这些趋势在所有可获得数据的集群中一致出现。还讨论了政府干预和溢出效应；我们没有发现出价过高的证据。了解恐怖主义的区域动态可能对政策制定和干预设计大有裨益。
We study the spatiotemporal correlation of terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and local insurgents, in six geographical areas identified via k-means clustering applied to the Global Terrorism Database. All surveyed organizations exhibit near-repeat activity whereby a prior attack increases the likelihood of a subsequent one by the same group within 20 km and on average 4 (al-Qaeda) to 10 (ISIS) weeks. Nearresponse activity, whereby an attack by a given organization elicits further attacks from a different one, is found to depend on the adversarial, neutral, or collaborative relationship between the two. When in conflict, local insurgents respond quickly to attacks by global terror groups while global terror groups delay their responses to local insurgents, leading to an asymmetric dynamic. When neutral or allied, attacks by one group enhance the response likelihood of the other, regardless of hierarchy. These trends arise consistently in all clusters for which data are available. Government intervention and spillover effects are also discussed; we find no evidence of outbidding. Understanding the regional dynamics of terrorism may be greatly beneficial in policy making and intervention design.