Disease transmission models for public health decision making: analysis of epidemic and endemic conditions caused by waterborne pathogens.
Disease transmission models for public health decision making: analysis of epidemic and endemic conditions caused by waterborne pathogens.
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公共卫生决策的疾病传播模型：对水传播病原体引起的流行病和流行状况的分析。
DOI：
10.1289/ehp.02110783
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发表时间：
2002-08
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Colford, John M Jr
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eisenberg, Joseph N S;Brookhart, M Alan;Rice, Glenn;Brown, Mary;Colford, John M Jr
制定针对环境健康问题的有效政策需要整合大量多样化、高度可变和不确定的信息。尽管科学上存在这些不确定性，但必须做出决定。这些决定通常基于风险评估。我们认为风险评估的两个重要特征是确定研究需求和为决策提供信息。模型可以提供的一类信息是根据导致公共卫生风险的因素做出一项决策而不是另一项决策的敏感性。为了实现这一目标，风险评估框架必须基于对暴露和疾病过程的描述。关于接触水传播病原体，适当的框架是明确模拟病原体疾病传播途径的框架。这种方法提供了科学与政策之间的重要联系。两项研究——贾第鞭毛虫风险评估案例研究和对 1993 年威斯康星州密尔沃基隐孢子虫爆发的分析——说明了模型在政策制定中可以发挥的作用。
Developing effective policy for environmental health issues requires integrating large collections of information that are diverse, highly variable, and uncertain. Despite these uncertainties in the science, decisions must be made. These decisions often have been based on risk assessment. We argue that two important features of risk assessment are to identify research needs and to provide information for decision making. One type of information that a model can provide is the sensitivity of making one decision over another on factors that drive public health risk. To achieve this goal, a risk assessment framework must be based on a description of the exposure and disease processes. Regarding exposure to waterborne pathogens, the appropriate framework is one that explicitly models the disease transmission pathways of pathogens. This approach provides a crucial link between science and policy. Two studies--a Giardia risk assessment case study and an analysis of the 1993 Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Cryptosporidium outbreak--illustrate the role that models can play in policy making.