Evaluation of ECMWF medium‐range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins
Evaluation of ECMWF medium‐range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins
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DOI：
10.1002/qj.2243
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发表时间：
2014-07
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
J. Ye;Y. He;F. Pappenberger;H. Cloke;D. Manful;Z. Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Ye;Y. He;F. Pappenberger;H. Cloke;D. Manful;Z. Li
在气象界和水文界，使用集合预报系统提供概率预报已变得越来越流行。与传统的确定性预报相比，概率预报可以提供更可靠的未来几小时至几天的预报，因此被认为是考虑不确定因素和对冲天气风险的更好工具。评估原始集合预报的性能及其在预报极端水文气象事件中的潜在价值是至关重要的。这项研究评估了ECMWF对选定的中纬度大型流域--中国中东部的淮河流域(约27万平方公里)--2008年1月1日至2012年9月30日期间降水的中期集合预报。评价单位是分流域的，以便以水文相关的方式考虑预报业绩。研究发现，预报性能随子流域属性、汛期和非汛期以及聚合时间步长和提前时间的预测属性而有所不同。虽然这项研究没有评估集合降水预报的任何水文学应用，但如果将集合降水预报用于水文学，其结果对水文预报有直接影响。
Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro‐meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF's medium‐range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 1 January 2008 to 30 September 2012 on a selected midlatitude large‐scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270 000 km2) in central‐east China. The evaluation unit is sub‐basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub‐basin properties, between flooding and non‐flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology.