Recent Trends in US Childbearing Intentions
Recent Trends in US Childbearing Intentions
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DOI：
10.1007/s13524-020-00929-w
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发表时间：
2020-11-09
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Gemmill, Alison
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hartnett, Caroline Sten;Gemmill, Alison
美国时期总和生育率自大衰退以来稳步下降，2018年达到1.73个孩子，是上世纪70年代以来的最低水平。这种模式可能意味着当前生育的群体最终会比以前的群体拥有更少的孩子，或者如果个人只是推迟他们计划最终生育的话，这种模式可能是克里思扭曲的产物。在这份研究报告中，我们使用了2006-2017年全国家庭增长调查中关于当前产次和未来计划生育的数据来阐明这个问题。我们发现，总的计划生育率下降了（从2006-2010年的2.26个孩子下降到2013-2017年的2.16个孩子），打算保持无子女的比例略有增加。分解表明，下降不是由于人口组成的变化，而是由于分组比率本身的变化。在年轻人和西班牙裔人中，预期均等的下降尤其明显。这些结果表明，虽然克里思扭曲可能是TFR下降的重要原因，但这不是唯一的解释：美国人打算比他们的前辈少生孩子，这可能会导致队列完成的奇偶性下降。然而，预期生育率的变化不大，平均预期生育率仍在两个孩子以上。
The U.S. period total fertility rate has declined steadily since the Great Recession, reaching 1.73 children in 2018, the lowest level since the 1970s. This pattern could mean that current childbearing cohorts will end up with fewer children than previous cohorts, or this same pattern could be an artifact of a tempo distortion if individuals are simply postponing births they plan to eventually have. In this research note, we use data on current parity and future intended births from the 2006-2017 National Survey of Family Growth to shed light on this issue. We find that total intended parity declined (from 2.26 in 2006-2010 to 2.16 children in 2013-2017), and the proportion intending to remain childless increased slightly. Decomposition indicates that the decline was not due to changes in population composition but rather changes in the subgroups' rates themselves. The decline in intended parity is particularly notable at young ages and among those who are Hispanic. These results indicate that although tempo distortion is likely an important contributor to the decline in TFR, it is not the sole explanation: U.S. individuals are intending to have fewer children than their immediate predecessors, which may translate into a decline in cohort completed parity. However, the change in intended parity is modest, and average intended parity remains above two children.