Lagrangian validation of numerical drifter trajectories using drifting buoys: Application to the Agulhas system

Lagrangian validation of numerical drifter trajectories using drifting buoys: Application to the Agulhas system
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使用漂流浮标对数值漂流者轨迹进行拉格朗日验证:在 Agulhas 系统中的应用

DOI:
10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.05.005
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发表时间:
2009
期刊:
影响因子:
3.2
通讯作者:
W. P. M. de Ruijter
W. P. M. de Ruijter
中科院分区:
地球科学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Van Sebille;P. J. van Leeuwen;A. Biastoch;C. N. Barron;W. P. M. de Ruijter

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通过将三个数值模型中的拉格朗日漂流轨迹与实际海洋中漂流浮标的轨迹进行比较,对拉格朗日漂流轨迹的数值计算能力进行了评估。技能评估采用双样本Kolmogorov-Smirnov统计检验。为演示评估程序,将其应用于阿古拉斯地区的三个不同模式。可以使用一维截面的交叉位置来执行测试,以测试特定位置的模型性能,也可以使用轨迹的整个二维数据集进行测试。该测试产生四个量:模型技能的二元决策、可用作模型拟合优度的度量的置信度、可用于确定置信度的灵敏度的测试统计量、以及有助于定性分析的累积分布函数。模型的可信度排序与基于定性分析的排序相同,表明该方法适用于模型验证。在三种模式中,只有一种模式--1/10°双向嵌套区域海洋模式--可能适用于阿古拉斯地区。另外两个模式,1/2°全球模式和1/8°同化模式,可能只适用于该区域的某些部分。
The skill of numerical Lagrangian drifter trajectories in three numerical models is assessed by comparing these numerically obtained paths to the trajectories of drifting buoys in the real ocean. The skill assessment is performed using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical test. To demonstrate the assessment procedure, it is applied to three different models of the Agulhas region. The test can either be performed using crossing positions of one-dimensional sections in order to test model performance in specific locations, or using the total two-dimensional data set of trajectories. The test yields four quantities: a binary decision of model skill, a confidence level which can be used as a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model, a test statistic which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the confidence level, and cumulative distribution functions that aid in the qualitative analysis. The ordering of models by their confidence levels is the same as the ordering based on the qualitative analysis, which suggests that the method is suited for model validation. Only one of the three models, a 1/10° two-way nested regional ocean model, might have skill in the Agulhas region. The other two models, a 1/2° global model and a 1/8° assimilative model, might have skill only on some sections in the region.
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