Simulating land-use dynamics under planning policies by integrating artificial immune systems with cellular automata
Simulating land-use dynamics under planning policies by integrating artificial immune systems with cellular automata
复制标题
通过将人工免疫系统与细胞自动机集成来模拟规划政策下的土地利用动态
DOI：
10.1080/13658810903270551
复制
发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Chen, Yimin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Xiaoping;Li, Xia;Chen, Yimin
元胞自动机（CA）越来越多地用于模拟城市扩张和土地利用动态。然而，大多数城市CA模型依赖于经验数据来推导过渡规则，假设历史趋势将持续到未来。这种惯性CA模型没有考虑可能的外部干预，特别是规划政策，因此很少用于城市和土地利用规划。本文建议使用人工免疫系统（AIS）作为一种技术，在城市模拟中纳入外部干预并生成替代方案。受生物免疫系统的启发，AIS 的主要过程是一组“抗体”的进化，这些抗体能够通过与一组样本“抗原”的相互作用进行学习。这些“抗体”最终“成熟”，可用于识别/分类其他“抗原”。基于 AIS 的 CA 模型通过改变“抗体”的进化机制来纳入规划政策。这样的模型能够在不同的土地使用政策下生成不同的城市发展情景，规划者将能够回答“假设”问题并评估不同的选择。我们将基于AIS的CA模型应用于中国南方珠江三角洲城市群发展的模拟。我们的实验表明，所提出的模型对于探索城市发展的各种规划场景非常有用。
Cellular automata (CA) have been increasingly used in simulating urban expansion and land-use dynamics. However, most urban CA models rely on empirical data for deriving transition rules, assuming that the historical trend will continue into the future. Such inertia CA models do not take into account possible external interventions, particularly planning policies, and thus have rarely been used in urban and land-use planning. This paper proposes to use artificial immune systems (AIS) as a technique for incorporating external interventions and generating alternatives in urban simulation. Inspired by biological immune systems, the primary process of AIS is the evolution of a set of 'antibodies' that are capable of learning through interactions with a set of sample 'antigens'. These 'antibodies' finally get 'matured' and can be used to identify/classify other 'antigens'. An AIS-based CA model incorporates planning policies by altering the evolution mechanism of the 'antibodies'. Such a model is capable of generating different scenarios of urban development under different land-use policies, with which the planners will be able to answer 'what if' questions and to evaluate different options. We applied an AIS-based CA model to the simulation of urban agglomeration development in the Pearl River Delta in southern China. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed model can be very useful in exploring various planning scenarios of urban development.