Procrastination with Variable Present Bias
Procrastination with Variable Present Bias
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存在偏差的拖延
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Emmanouil Pountourakis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Gravin;Nicole Immorlica;Brendan Lucier;Emmanouil Pountourakis
朝着一个目标努力的人经常表现出时间不一致的行为，制定计划，然后无法贯彻到底。这种行为异常的一个著名模型是“现在偏差贴现”（present-bias discounting）：个体因偏差因素而高估了当前成本。这个模型解释了许多时间不一致的行为，但也可以在许多情况下做出严酷的预测：人们要么遵循最有效的计划来实现目标，要么无限期地拖延。我们提出了一种修改，其中当前偏差参数可以随时间变化，从固定分布中独立地绘制每一步。继Kleinberg和Oren（2014）之后，我们使用加权{\it任务图}来建模任务规划，并将拖延的成本衡量为所选路径与最优路径的相对期望成本。我们使用最优定价理论的新连接来描述任何当前偏差分布的最坏情况任务图的结构。然后，我们利用这种结构推导出偏差分布的条件，在这种条件下，最坏情况的比率是指数（随时间）或常数。我们还研究了导致拖延率提高的任务图上的条件：到目标的距离一致有界的图，以及到目标的距离在任何路径上都单调减小的图。
Individuals working towards a goal often exhibit time inconsistent behavior, making plans and then failing to follow through. One well-known model of such behavioral anomalies is present-bias discounting: individuals over-weight present costs by a bias factor. This model explains many time-inconsistent behaviors, but can make stark predictions in many settings: individuals either follow the most efficient plan for reaching their goal or procrastinate indefinitely. We propose a modification in which the present-bias parameter can vary over time, drawn independently each step from a fixed distribution. Following Kleinberg and Oren (2014), we use a weighted {\it task graph} to model task planning, and measure the cost of procrastination as the relative expected cost of the chosen path versus the optimal path. We use a novel connection to optimal pricing theory to describe the structure of the worst-case task graph for any present-bias distribution. We then leverage this structure to derive conditions on the bias distribution under which the worst-case ratio is exponential (in time) or constant. We also examine conditions on the task graph that lead to improved procrastination ratios: graphs with a uniformly bounded distance to the goal, and graphs in which the distance to the goal monotonically decreases on any path.