Forecasting eruptions after long repose intervals from accelerating rates of rock fracture: The June 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines
Forecasting eruptions after long repose intervals from accelerating rates of rock fracture: The June 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.01.006
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发表时间：
2010-03-10
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Kilburn, C. R. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith, R.;Kilburn, C. R. J.
菲律宾皮纳图博火山在沉睡了 500 年并检测到地震动荡两个月后，于 1991 年 6 月 7 日爆发。此次喷发前最后几天火山构造（VT）地震速率的加速此前已被用于开发喷发预测模型，该模型基于火山大厦中裂缝的延伸和合并，形成岩浆上升到地表的新路径。在这里，使用这些预测模型重新分析 VT 地震速率的前兆加速度，以测试它们对 VT 地震数据收集方式的准确性和敏感性。将数据划分为固定的 VT 数字间隔而不是固定的时间间隔可以提供更精确的预测，但会给出喷发开始前 24 小时的“预测”。这被解释为指示新岩浆通道形成时间的预测时间。在岩浆到达地表之前的最后一天，VT 地震活动的持续高频率被解释为在岩浆上升过程中通道的加宽以及岩浆与围岩之间的摩擦。 (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
Mount Pinatubo, Philippines erupted on 7th June 1991, after 500 years of repose and two months of detected seismic unrest. Accelerating volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquake rates in the final days before this eruption have previously been used to develop eruption forecasting models based on extension and coalescence of fractures in the volcanic edifice forming a new pathway for magma ascent to the surface. Here, the precursory acceleration in VT earthquake rates is re-analysed with these forecasting models to test their accuracy and sensitivity to how the VT earthquake data are gathered. Binning the data into fixed VT number intervals rather than fixed time intervals gives more precise forecasts, but gives a 'forecast' 24 hours before the eruption began. This is interpreted as the forecast time indicating when the new magma conduit formed. The continued high rate of VT seismicity in the final day before the magma reached the surface is interpreted as widening of the conduit and friction between the magma and country rock during magma ascent. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.