Projection of diabetes burden through 2050 - Impact of changing demography and disease prevalence in the US
Projection of diabetes burden through 2050 - Impact of changing demography and disease prevalence in the US
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DOI：
10.2337/diacare.24.11.1936
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发表时间：
2001-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
Thompson, TJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boyle, JP;Honeycutt, AA;Thompson, TJ
目标--根据人口统计学和糖尿病患病率的变化，预测到2050年美国被诊断为糖尿病的人数。研究设计和方法--我们结合了年龄、性别和种族的确诊糖尿病患病率--从全国健康访谈调查的1980-1998年患病率数据趋势预测--与人口普查局的人口人口预测相结合。敏感性分析是通过不同的患病率和人口预测进行的。结果-美国被诊断为糖尿病的人数预计将增长165%，从2000年的1100万人(患病率为4.0%)增加到2050年的2900万人(患病率为7.2%)。确诊糖尿病的百分比增幅最大的将是那些年龄大于或等于75岁的人(女性增加271%，男性增加437%)。增长最快的被诊断为糖尿病的种族群体预计将是黑人男性(2000-2050年增长363%)，患有黑人EMA。男性(+148%)和白人女性(+107%)紧随其后。在2050年预计增加的1800万糖尿病病例中，37%是由于人口构成的变化，27%是由于人口增长，36%是由于患病率上升。结论-如果糖尿病患病率最近的趋势在未来50年继续线性增长，美国人口规模和人口特征的未来变化将导致诊断为糖尿病的美国人数量急剧增加。
OBJECTIVE - To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalence rates.,,RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence rates-predicted from 1980-1998 trends in prevalence data from the National Health Interview Survey-with Bureau of Census population demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying both prevalence rate and population projections.RESULTS - The number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000 (prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%). The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabetes will be among those aged greater than or equal to 75 years (+271% in women and +437% in men). The fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diabetes is expected to be black males (+363% rom 2000-2050), with black ema. males (+148%), and white females (+107%) following. Of the projected 18 million increase in the number of cases of diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to changes in demographic composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to increasing prevalence rates.CONCLUSIONS - If recent trends in diabetes prevalence rates continue linearly over the next 50 years, future changes in the size and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population will lead to dramatic increases in the number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes.