Integrated risk management of safety and development on transportation corridors
Integrated risk management of safety and development on transportation corridors
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交通走廊安全与发展一体化风险管理
DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2014.11.015
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Lambert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Thekdi;J. Lambert
确定投资的优先顺序，以保护多区域交通网络的安全和性能不受邻近土地开发的影响，是基础设施机构、土地开发商和其他利益攸关方的关键关切。尽管有大量文献描述了交通和土地利用之间的关系，但还没有基于证据的方法来大规模监测走廊需求。风险分析对于维护系统安全和能力至关重要，包括避免昂贵的改装、后悔和行动迟缓。本文介绍了走廊痕迹分析(CTA)，用于对易受邻近土地开发影响的走廊段进行优先排序。该方法集成了几个组成部分：(I)使用影响图和基于规则的建模来估计相邻土地开发的可能性，(Ii)使用地理空间方法来表征接入点密度，以及(Iii)走廊的多模型评估、土地开发可能性、接入点密度和交通量的监测指数。结果为部署选项提供了信息，包括关闭接入点、限制开发以及与机构和开发商进行谈判。CTA方法在一个包含6000条中心线英里(约1万公里)的交通走廊区域进行了演示。投资于基础设施系统的安全和性能，平衡安全、财务和其他不同利益相关者关注的标准的管理者将对该方法感兴趣。
Prioritization of investments to protect safety and performance of multi-regional transportation networks from adjacent land development is a key concern for infrastructure agencies, land developers, and other stakeholders. Despite ample literature describing relationships between transportation and land use, no evidence-based methods exist for monitoring corridor needs on a large scale. Risk analysis is essential to the preservation of system safety and capacity, including avoidance of costly retrofits, regret, and belated action. This paper introduces the Corridor Trace Analysis (CTA) for prioritizing corridor segments that are vulnerable to adjacent land development. The method integrates several components: (i) estimation of likelihood of adjacent land development, using influence diagram and rule-based modeling, (ii) characterization of access point density using geospatial methods, and (iii) plural-model evaluation of corridors, monitoring indices of land development likelihood, access point densities, and traffic volumes. The results inform deployment of options that include closing access points, restricting development, and negotiation of agencies and developers. The CTA method is demonstrated on a region encompassing 6000 centerline miles (about 10,000 km) of transportation corridors. The method will be of interest to managers investing in safety and performance of infrastructure systems, balancing safety, financial, and other criteria of concern for diverse stakeholders.