Age-dependent estimates of the epidemiological impact of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan.
Age-dependent estimates of the epidemiological impact of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan.
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DOI：
10.1155/2013/637064
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mizumoto K;Yamamoto T;Nishiura H
根据日本哨点监测数据，在对所有医疗机构中的哨点医疗机构进行随机抽样假设的情况下，估计了接受医疗服务的流感病例总数。2009年的大流行提供了一个研究机会，通过采用血凝素抑制（HI）测定法的全人群血清流行病学调查所测量的估计感染比例，验证基于哨兵的估计方法。对于整个人群，我们估计年龄标准化的感染比例分别为28.5%和23.5%，使用HI滴度的临界值分别为1:20和1:40。通过调查年龄分布，我们发现，在0至19岁的人群中，就诊的流感样疾病（ILI）病例估计值超过了感染估计值，这表明基于哨兵的估计方法高估了流感样疾病的严重程度。估计病例与估计感染的比率随着年龄的增长而下降。检查地理分布，未发现估计病例与感染之间存在正相关关系。我们的研究结果表明，由于ILI的特异性有限和报告偏倚，所谓的乘数法在适当量化流感风险方面存在严重的技术局限性。应在大流行之前计划进行血清流行病学研究。
The total number of influenza cases with medical attendance has been estimated from sentinel surveillance data in Japan under a random sampling assumption of sentinel medical institutions among the total medical institutions. The 2009 pandemic offered a research opportunity to validate the sentinel-based estimation method using the estimated proportion of infections measured by the population-wide seroepidemiological survey employing hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) assay. For the entire population, we estimated the age-standardized proportion of infections at 28.5% and 23.5% using cut-off values of HI titer at 1 : 20 and 1 : 40, respectively. Investigating the age profiles, we show that the estimated influenza-like illness (ILI) cases with medical attendance exceeded the estimated infections among those aged from 0 to 19 years, indicating an overestimation of the magnitude by sentinel-based estimation method. The ratio of estimated cases to estimated infections decreased as a function of age. Examining the geographic distributions, no positive correlation was identified between the estimated cases and infections. Our findings indicate a serious technical limitation of the so-called multiplier method in appropriately quantifying the risk of influenza due to limited specificity of ILI and reporting bias. A seroepidemiological study should be planned in advance of a pandemic.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Brooks-Pollock E;Tilston N;Edmunds WJ;Eames KT
通讯作者：
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作者：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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