Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Timescales
Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Timescales
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl084018
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发表时间：
2019-10-22
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Popp, Max
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lutsko, Nicholas J.;Popp, Max
短暂变暖的速率是由若干因素决定的，特别是二氧化碳浓度增加造成的辐射强迫和净辐射反馈。瞬态变暖的不确定性既来自于各因子的不确定性，也来自于变暖对各因子不确定性的敏感性。利用能量平衡模式对瞬态变暖的这两个不确定性分量进行了分析，结果表明，瞬态变暖对强迫的不确定性最为敏感，而对辐射反馈的不确定性则不敏感。此外，海洋热吸收效率的不确定性比海洋热吸收速率的不确定性更为重要。进一步的三个含义如下：(1)瞬态变暖对排放的不确定性高度敏感；(2)从短期气候扰动推断未来变暖趋势时需要谨慎；(3)利用历史记录调整的气候模型对关于历史强迫的假设高度敏感。
The rate of transient warming is determined by a number of factors, notably the radiative forcing from increasing CO2 concentrations and the net radiative feedback. Uncertainty in transient warming comes from both the uncertainty in each factor and from the warming's sensitivity to uncertainty in each factor. An energy balance model is used to untangle these two components of uncertainty in transient warming, which is shown to be most sensitive to uncertainty in the forcing and not to uncertainty in radiative feedbacks. Additionally, uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake is more important than uncertainty in the rate of ocean heat uptake. Three further implications are as follows: (1) transient warming is highly sensitive to uncertainty in emissions, (2) caution is warranted when extrapolating future warming trends from short-lived climate perturbations, and (3) climate models tuned using the historical record are highly sensitive to assumptions made about the historical forcing.