Meteorological variables and mosquito monitoring are good predictors for infestation trends of Aedes aegypti, the vector of dengue, chikungunya and Zika.
Meteorological variables and mosquito monitoring are good predictors for infestation trends of Aedes aegypti, the vector of dengue, chikungunya and Zika.
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DOI：
10.1186/s13071-017-2025-8
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发表时间：
2017-02-13
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Eiras ÁE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
da Cruz Ferreira DA;Degener CM;de Almeida Marques-Toledo C;Bendati MM;Fetzer LO;Teixeira CP;Eiras ÁE
埃及伊蚊是虫媒病毒的重要传播媒介，广泛分布于世界各地。气候因素可影响病媒种群动态，从而影响疾病传播。本研究的目的是描述的时间动态的一个AE。埃及伊蚊的数量与登革热个案的关系，以及调查气象因素与蚊患的关系。我们监测和分析了成年雌性Ae。在巴西的亚热带城市波尔图阿莱格雷，使用MI-登革热系统（智能登革热监测）监测登革热病媒埃及人。该系统使用粘性诱捕器监测每周虫害指数。我们将广义加性模型（GAM）与包括降水，温度和湿度在内的气候变量进行了拟合，并将前一周的蚊子丰度作为解释变量。Logistic回归分析用于评估成蚊感染对登革热发生概率的影响。成蚊丰度具有很强的季节性，冬季的侵扰指数低，夏季的侵扰指数高。每周最低温度超过18 °C与蚊子数量增加密切相关，而湿度超过75%对数量有负面影响。包括前一周的成蚊侵扰的GAM模型比仅包括气象预测变量的模型更好地调整和预测观察到的数据。登革热也是季节性的，98%的病例发生在成人Ae高的时候。埃及伊蚊的侵扰当监测诱捕器捕获的成蚊平均数量每周增加0.1只时，登革热发生的概率增加25%。结果表明，持续监测登革热病媒种群可以更可靠地预测感染指数。成蚊感染指数是登革热发生的一个很好的预测指标。在巴西亚热带城市，每周监测成年登革热病媒是一种有益的登革热控制策略。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1186/s13071-017-2025-8）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Aedes aegypti is an important vector for arboviroses and widely distributed throughout the world. Climatic factors can influence vector population dynamics and, consequently, disease transmission. The aim of this study was to characterize the temporal dynamics of an Ae. aegypti population and dengue cases and to investigate the relationship between meteorological variables and mosquito infestation. We monitored and analyzed the adult female Ae. aegypti population, the dengue-fever vector, in Porto Alegre, a subtropical city in Brazil using the MI-Dengue system (intelligent dengue monitoring). This system uses sticky traps to monitor weekly infestation indices. We fitted generalized additive models (GAM) with climate variables including precipitation, temperature and humidity, and a GAM that additionally included mosquito abundance in the previous week as an explanatory variable. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the effect of adult mosquito infestation on the probability of dengue occurrence. Adult mosquito abundance was strongly seasonal, with low infestation indices during the winters and high infestation during the summers. Weekly minimum temperatures above 18 °C were strongly associated with increased mosquito abundance, whereas humidity above 75% had a negative effect on abundance. The GAM model that included adult mosquito infestation in the previous week adjusted and predicted the observed data much better than the model which included only meteorological predictor variables. Dengue was also seasonal and 98% of all cases occurred at times of high adult Ae. aegypti infestation. The probability of dengue occurrence increased by 25%, when the mean number of adult mosquitos caught by monitoring traps increased by 0.1 mosquitoes per week. The results suggest that continuous monitoring of dengue vector population allows for more reliable predictions of infestation indices. The adult mosquito infestation index was a good predictor of dengue occurrence. Weekly adult dengue vector monitoring is a helpful dengue control strategy in subtropical Brazilian cities. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-017-2025-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.