The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration
The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration
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DOI：
10.1093/oxrep/grx008
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发表时间：
2017-03-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Forte, Giuseppe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Portes, Jonathan;Forte, Giuseppe
我们分析了移民流向英国的决定因素，以及英国脱欧后限制自由流动的短期和长期影响。然后，我们提供合理的，基于经验的估计可能对增长和工资使用现有的经验文献的关系。我们发现，英国脱欧导致的移民减少可能会对英国人均GDP（和GDP）产生重大负面影响，对低技能服务业的工资产生轻微的积极影响。
We analyse the determinants of migration flows to the UK, and the impact of restrictions on free movement post-Brexit, in both the short and long term. We then provide plausible, empirically based estimates of the likely impacts on growth and wages using relationships from the existing empirical literature. We find that Brexit-induced reductions in migration are likely to have a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector.