Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends
Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends
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DOI：
10.1029/2011gl050582
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发表时间：
2012-02-25
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Cherry, Jessica E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cohen, Judah L.;Furtado, Jason C.;Cherry, Jessica E.
目前关于全球气候变化的共识预测，人为强迫会导致变暖趋势，预计冬季北半球高纬度地区的气温变化最大。然而，全球气温趋势在最近十年左右的时间里几乎没有出现变暖。然而，在适合评估趋势的较长时期内，除冬季外，全球气温在所有季节都经历了显着的变暖趋势，而冬季北美东部和欧亚大陆北部的大片地区却存在降温趋势。因此，最近的全球变暖是一种季节性现象，仅在北方冬季普遍存在。此外，我们还发现，过去二十年对全球温度趋势影响最大的区域因素是北半球温带地区的地表温度。因此，所提出的解释全球年度气温波动的机制应该解决这种明显的季节性不对称问题。引用：Cohen、J. L.、J. C. Furtado、M. Barlow、V. A. Alexeev 和 J. E. Cherry (2012)，不对称季节性温度趋势，地球物理学。资源。快报，39，L04705，doi：10.1029/2011GL050582。
Current consensus on global climate change predicts warming trends driven by anthropogenic forcing, with maximum temperature changes projected in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes during winter. Yet, global temperature trends show little warming over the most recent decade or so. For longer time periods appropriate to the assessment of trends, however, global temperatures have experienced significant warming trends for all seasons except winter, when cooling trends exist instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia. Hence, the most recent lapse in global warming is a seasonal phenomenon, prevalent only in boreal winter. Additionally, we show that the largest regional contributor to global temperature trends over the past two decades is land surface temperatures in the NH extratropics. Therefore, proposed mechanisms explaining the fluctuations in global annual temperatures should address this apparent seasonal asymmetry. Citation: Cohen, J. L., J. C. Furtado, M. Barlow, V. A. Alexeev, and J. E. Cherry (2012), Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04705, doi: 10.1029/2011GL050582.