Observed influence of anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclone heavy rainfall
Observed influence of anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclone heavy rainfall
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-022-01344-2
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发表时间：
2022-04
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
N. Utsumi;Hyungjun Kim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Utsumi;Hyungjun Kim
气候变化对西北太平洋地区热带气旋的影响是一个非常令人关注的问题。观测表明，最近与TC有关的暴雨发生了变化。然而，尚未确定人为强迫是否对这种变化有任何贡献。在这里，我们表明，人类引起的变暖已经大大改变了TC引起的暴雨事件的频率在WNP地区的证据。自1961年以来的观测表明，TC引起的暴雨发生在沿着东亚沿海显著增加，而在WNP南部则减少。在大型集合气候模拟的基础上，我们证明了所观察到的变化不能仅仅用自然变率来解释。这表明，人为影响已经显着改变了TC引起的暴雨模式在WNP地区。
The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) is of great concern in the Western North Pacific (WNP) region. Observations suggest that there have been recent changes in TC-related heavy rainfall. However, it has not yet been determined whether anthropogenic forcing has any contribution to such changes. Here, we show evidence that the human-induced warming has considerably changed the frequency of TC-induced heavy rainfall events in the WNP region. Observations since 1961 show that the occurrence of TC-induced heavy rainfall has significantly increased along coastal East Asia, while it has decreased in the southern part of WNP. On the basis of large ensemble climate simulations, we demonstrate that the observed changes cannot be explained solely by natural variability. This suggests that anthropogenic impacts have already significantly altered the TC-induced heavy rainfall pattern in the WNP region.