Present-day and future contribution of climate and fires to vegetation composition in the boreal forest of China
Present-day and future contribution of climate and fires to vegetation composition in the boreal forest of China
复制标题
当前和未来气候和火灾对中国北方森林植被组成的贡献
DOI：
10.1002/ecs2.1917
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Gao Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu Chao;Venevsky Sergey;Sitch Stephen;Yang Yang;Wang Menghui;Wang Lei;Gao Yu
众所周知，气候是地理学的一个重要决定因素。虽然气候是直接重要的植被组成的北方森林，这些生态系统是非常敏感的间接影响的气候通过火灾干扰。然而，火干扰和气候对成分的驱动平衡知之甚少。在这项研究中，我们定量分析了中国黑龙江省北方森林的个人贡献，以及它们对气候变化的响应，使用四种变暖情景（+1.5°，2°，3°和4°C）。本研究采用了Redundancy Analysis（RDA）和变分方法，结合SERGEY VERsion动态全球植被模型（SEVER‐DGVM）的模拟结果，以及全球土地覆盖遥感数据集（GLC 2000）和全球火灾排放数据库（GFED 3）的第三版。结果表明，目前植被分布主要由气候直接决定（35%），而不是火（1-10.9%）。然而，随着未来全球变暖1.5°C，当地植被组成将由火灾而不是气候决定（36.3% > 29.3%）。升温超过1.5°C，温度在调节植被分布方面将比火灾更重要，尽管降水等其他因素也可能起作用。在该地区的植被组成的空间格局，由莫兰的本征矢量图（MEM）评估，对当地的植被覆盖率有显着的影响，例如，在任何个别位置的组成是高度相关的，在其附近。它是所有情景中对植被分布的最大贡献，但不会改变气候和火灾之间的驱动平衡。我们的研究结果与森林和野火管理高度相关。
Climate is well known as an important determinant of biogeography. Although climate is directly important for vegetation composition in the boreal forests, these ecosystems are strongly sensitive to an indirect effect of climate via fire disturbance. However, the driving balance of fire disturbance and climate on composition is poorly understood. In this study, we quantitatively analyzed their individual contributions for the boreal forests of the Heilongjiang Province, China, and their response to climate change using four warming scenarios (+1.5°, 2°, 3°, and 4°C). This study employs the statistical methods of Redundancy Analysis (RDA) and variation partitioning combined with simulation results from a SErgey VERsion Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SEVER‐DGVM), and remote sensing datasets of global land cover (GLC2000) and the third version of Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3). Results show that the vegetation distribution for the present day is mainly determined directly by climate (35%) rather than fire (1–10.9%). However, with a future global warming of 1.5°C, local vegetation composition will be determined by fires rather than climate (36.3% > 29.3%). Above 1.5°C warming, temperature will be more important than fires in regulating vegetation distribution although other factors such as precipitation can also contribute. The spatial pattern in vegetation composition over the region, as evaluated by Moran's Eigenvector Map (MEM), has a significant impact on local vegetation coverage; for example, composition at any individual location is highly related to that in its neighborhood. It represents the largest contribution to vegetation distribution in all scenarios, but will not change the driving balance between climate and fires. Our results are highly relevant for forest and wildfires' management.