Health and Climate Change 4 Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: food and agriculture
Health and Climate Change 4 Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: food and agriculture
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(09)61753-0
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发表时间：
2009-12-12
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
Haines, Andy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Friel, Sharon;Dangour, Alan D.;Haines, Andy
农业粮食生产和与农业有关的土地使用变化是全球温室气体排放的主要原因。农业排放的五分之四来自畜牧业。虽然畜产品是一些必需营养素的来源，但它们提供了大量的饱和脂肪，这是心血管疾病的已知危险因素。我们考虑了农业部门的潜在战略，以达到英国气候变化委员会建议的目标，即到2050年将英国的排放量从1990年记录的浓度减少80%，这需要到2030年减少50%。以英国为案例研究，我们确定了农业技术改进和减少30%的畜牧业生产的组合将需要达到这一目标;在没有来自巴西的良好排放数据的情况下，我们假设所需的减排量与我们在圣保罗市的第二个案例研究相同。然后，我们使用这些数据来模拟减少畜产品消费对缺血性心脏病负担的潜在益处：英国的疾病负担将减少约15%（相当于1年内每百万人口2850残疾调整生命年[DALLS]），圣保罗市将减少16%（相当于1年内每百万人口2180 DALLS）。虽然这种战略可能对健康有益，但可能会遇到文化、政治和商业阻力，并面临技术挑战。需要在全世界农业、营养、公共卫生和气候变化领域采取协调一致的跨部门行动，为所有社会提供负担得起、健康、低排放的饮食。
Agricultural food production and agriculturally-related change in land use substantially contribute to greenhouse-gas emissions worldwide. Four-fifths of agricultural emissions arise from the livestock sector. Although livestock products are a source of some essential nutrients, they provide large amounts of saturated fat, which is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We considered potential strategies for the agricultural sector to meet the target recommended by the UK Committee on Climate Change to reduce UK emissions from the concentrations recorded in 1990 by 80% by 2050, which would require a 50% reduction by 2030. With use of the UK as a case study, we identified that a combination of agricultural technological improvements and a 30% reduction in livestock production would be needed to meet this target; in the absence of good emissions data from Brazil, we assumed for illustrative purposes that the required reductions would be the same for our second case study in Sao Paulo city. We then used these data to model the potential benefits of reduced consumption of livestock products on the burden of ischaemic heart disease: disease burden would decrease by about 15% in the UK (equivalent to 2850 disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs] per million population in 1 year) and 16% in Sao Paulo city (equivalent to 2180 DALYs per million population in 1 year). Although likely to yield benefits to health, such a strategy will probably encounter cultural, political, and commercial resistance, and face technical challenges. Coordinated intersectoral action is needed across agricultural, nutritional, public health, and climate change communities worldwide to provide affordable, healthy, low-emission diets for all societies.