Landslide hazard assessment by smoothed particle hydrodynamics with spatially variable soil properties and statistical rainfall distribution
Landslide hazard assessment by smoothed particle hydrodynamics with spatially variable soil properties and statistical rainfall distribution
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DOI：
10.1139/cgj-2019-0601
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发表时间：
2020-03
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
H. Mori;Xiaoyu Chen;Y. Leung;D. Shimokawa;M. Lo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Mori;Xiaoyu Chen;Y. Leung;D. Shimokawa;M. Lo
在过去的几十年里，降雨引发的滑坡对建筑物造成了重大的破坏和人员伤亡，因此对边坡的失稳后性态进行评估具有重要意义。这项研究提出了一个概率框架来评估由松散填土边坡失稳引起的滑坡的危险性。采用能够捕捉滑坡大变形的光滑粒子流体动力学(SPH)方法模拟滑坡的破坏过程。将土的抗剪强度参数建模为随机变量，并进行随机场模拟，以探讨土的变异性对跳动距离的影响。此外，降雨特性的不确定性用Gumbel分布表示，在多次渗流分析中模拟了随后的降雨入渗，得到了边坡中的孔压分布，并将其作为SPH方法的初始条件。结合这些不同的不确定性来源，基于滑坡跳动距离的响应不确定性，量化了表示附近建筑物风险的危险因素。为了验证这一框架，对两种典型的松散填土边坡布局进行了危险等级评估，其结果可作为相邻开发项目的风险区划指标。
Rainfall-induced landslides have caused significant damage to structures and casualties in the past decades, and it is of great importance to assess the post-failure behavior of slopes. This study proposes a probabilistic framework to evaluate the hazards associated with landslide runout arising from loose-fill slope failures. The failure process is simulated by the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method, which is capable of capturing large deformations of landslides. The shear strength parameters of the soils are modeled as random variables, and random field simulations are performed to explore the effects of soil variability on the runout distance. In addition, the uncertainty in rainfall characteristics is represented by the Gumbel distribution, with the ensuing rainfall infiltration simulated in multiple seepage analyses to obtain pore pressure profiles in the slope, which are then adopted as initial conditions for the SPH method. Combining these various sources of uncertainty, the hazard factors indicating the risks for nearby structures are quantified based on the response uncertainty in landslide runout distances. To demonstrate this framework, the hazard levels associated with two typical layouts of loose-fill slopes are evaluated, and the results may serve as risk zoning indicators for adjacent developments.