Renal function after radical nephrectomy: Development and validation of predictive models in Japanese patients
Renal function after radical nephrectomy: Development and validation of predictive models in Japanese patients
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DOI：
10.1111/iju.12277
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Kihara, Kazunori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yokoyama, Minato;Fujii, Yasuhisa;Kihara, Kazunori
ObjectivesTo develop and validate predictive models for postoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of chronic kidney disease after radical nephrectomy in Japanese patients.MethodsThe present retrospective study included a development cohort of 209 patients without preoperative chronic kidney disease who carried radical nephrectomy between 1994 and 2008，and were follow up for more than 3 years.以及144名类似患者的验证队列。通过单因素和多因素线性回归或Logistic回归分析，确定影响根治性肾切除术后3年估计肾小球滤过率或慢性肾脏疾病的独立预测因素。结合所有独立预测因素，开发了术后肾功能预测模型并进行了外部验证。结果年龄、糖尿病的存在和术前估计的肾小球滤过率是术后估计的肾小球滤过率和慢性肾脏疾病的独立预测因素。建立了预测术后肾小球滤过率的公式和预测术后慢性肾脏病风险的列线图。调整后的R-2的公式和面积的受试者工作特征曲线的诺模图分别为0.446和0.865的发展队列，和0.396和0.787在验证cohol.ConclusionsWe开发和验证新的预测模型，为术后肾功能3年后，根治性肾切除术在日本患者。
ObjectivesTo develop and validate predictive models for postoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of chronic kidney disease after radical nephrectomy in Japanese patients.MethodsThe present retrospective study included a development cohort of 209 patients without preoperative chronic kidney disease who underwent radical nephrectomy between 1994 and 2008, and were followed up for longer than 3years, and a validation cohort of 144 similar such patients. Univariate and multivariate linear regression or logistic regression analyses were carried out to identify the independent predictors of estimated glomerular filtration rate or chronic kidney disease 3years after radical nephrectomy. Incorporating all independent predictors, predictive models for postoperative renal function were developed and externally validated.ResultsAge, the presence of diabetes mellitus, and preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate were independent predictors of both postoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate and chronic kidney disease. A formula for predicting the postoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate and a nomogram for predicting the risk of postoperative chronic kidney disease were developed. The adjusted R-2 of the formula and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the nomogram were 0.446 and 0.865 in the development cohort, and 0.396 and 0.787 in the validation cohort, respectively.ConclusionsWe developed and validated novel predictive models for the postoperative renal function 3years after radical nephrectomy in Japanese patients.