Exploring trade-offs between SDGs for Indus River Dolphin conservation and human water security in the regulated Beas River, India
Exploring trade-offs between SDGs for Indus River Dolphin conservation and human water security in the regulated Beas River, India
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DOI：
10.1007/s11625-021-01026-6
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发表时间：
2021-10-11
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Holman, Ian P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Momblanch, Andrea;Kelkar, Nachiket;Holman, Ian P.
在印度的印度-恒河平原，水坝、拦河坝和引水工程强烈地改变了河流流量，用于灌溉、城市供水、水电生产和防洪。人类对淡水的需求可能会随着气候和社会经济变化而加剧，加剧依赖淡水的不同可持续发展目标(如SDG2、SDG6、SDG7、SDG11和SDG15)之间的权衡。淡水生态系统和濒危水生物种在可持续发展目标中没有明确涉及，只是作为可持续发展目标6和15中的目标。因此，推进其他可持续发展目标的决定很有可能忽视对这些目标的影响。在这项研究中，我们将水资源系统模型和预测灭绝风险模型联系起来，分析在气候变化对河流水文和人类用水需求造成的影响下，受管制的双鱼河(印度)的替代保护战略如何影响印度仅存的濒危印度河海豚(IRD)种群的生存可能性，明确考虑到相关可持续发展目标之间的潜在权衡。我们发现，在一些气候变化的情况下，主要水库释放的低流量频率可能会增加，从而显著影响税务局人口。IRD的持久性、城市供水和水力发电之间存在着最强的权衡。建立了解生态信息的水库放行与税务局人口补充相结合，提高了税务局的生存概率，并与改善相关可持续发展目标的状况相一致。这将需要水资源管理者、保护科学家和其他利益攸关方继续合作，制定全面的水资源管理战略。
In India's Indo-Gangetic plains, river flows are strongly altered by dams, barrages and water diversions for irrigation, urban supply, hydropower production and flood control. Human demands for freshwater are likely to intensify with climatic and socio-economic changes, exacerbating trade-offs between different sustainable development goals (SDGs) dependent on freshwater (e.g. SDG2, SDG6, SDG7, SDG11 and SDG15). Freshwater ecosystems and endangered aquatic species are not explicitly addressed in the SDGs, but only nested as targets within SDG6 and SDG15. Thus, there is high risk that decisions to advance other SDGs may overlook impacts on them. In this study, we link a water resource systems model and a forecast extinction risk model to analyze how alternative conservation strategies in the regulated Beas River (India) affect the likelihood of survival of the only remaining population of endangered Indus River Dolphins (IRD) in India in the face of climate change-induced impacts on river hydrology and human water demands, explicitly accounting for potential trade-offs between related SDGs. We find that the frequency of low flow released from the main reservoir may increase under some climate change scenarios, significantly affecting the IRD population. The strongest trade-offs exist between the persistence of IRD, urban water supply and hydropower generation. The establishment of ecologically informed reservoir releases combined with IRD population supplementation enhances the probability of survival of the IRD and is compatible with improving the status of relevant SDGs. This will require water managers, conservation scientists, and other stakeholders to continue collaborating to develop holistic water management strategies.