The utility of the zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial models: a case study of cross-sectional and longitudinal DMF data examining the effect of socio-economic status
The utility of the zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial models: a case study of cross-sectional and longitudinal DMF data examining the effect of socio-economic status
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1600-0528.2004.00155.x
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发表时间：
2004-06-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Thomson, WM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lewsey, JD;Thomson, WM
目的：研究零膨胀泊松（ZIP）和零膨胀负二项（ZINB）建模方法对来自同一队列研究的四组龋齿数据建模的实用性[特别注意儿童社会经济地位（SES）的影响]：5岁乳牙列的横截面数据; 18岁和26岁恒牙列的横截面数据;以及18 - 26岁龋齿增长的纵向数据。研究方法：关于5岁、18岁和26岁龋齿发生率的数据来自达尼丁多学科健康与发展研究（DMHDS）。使用Stata（Intercooled Stata 7.0）将ZIP和ZINB模型拟合到横截面（n = 745）和纵向（n = 809）数据集。三个横断面分析的因变量是5岁、18岁和26岁时的DMFS指数，而净DFS增量（NETDFS）是纵向分析的因变量。结果如下：空ZIP模型对所有四个数据集的拟合较差，而空ZINB模型显示出良好的拟合;因此，使用ZINB建模进行了横截面和纵向分析。在儿童时期处于高SES组与18岁时无龋的概率更大相关，超过了负二项过程的预期。在负二项过程的建模中，低儿童SES也具有最大的系数，但在5岁时，低SES组的校正平均dmfs评分为6.8（而中等和高SES组分别为4.7和2.9）。在5岁时（乳牙期）存在的显著SES差异在18岁时有所减少，在26岁时再次扩大。在纵向分析中，“基线”龋齿的经验（年龄18岁DMFS）是一个预测器都是一个额外的零和龋齿的严重程度。结论：对零膨胀方法用于模拟横截面和纵向龋齿数据的效用的调查表明，ZIP/ZINB模型可以提供对疾病模式的新见解。预计它们将在使用DMF指数作为结局指标的流行病学研究中变得越来越有用。
Objectives: To examine the utility of the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) modelling approaches for modelling four sets of dental caries data from the same cohort study [with particular attention to the influence of childhood socioeconomic status (SES)]: cross-sectional data on the deciduous dentition at age 5 years; cross-sectional data on the permanent dentition at age 18 and 26 years; and longitudinal data on caries increment between ages 18 and 26 years. Methods: Data on dental caries occurrence at ages 5, 18 and 26 years were obtained from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study (DMHDS). ZIP and ZINB models were fitted to the cross-sectional (n = 745) and longitudinal (n = 809) data sets using Stata (Intercooled Stata 7.0). The dependent variables for the three cross-sectional analyses were the DMFS indices at age 5, 18, and 26 years, and net DFS increment (NETDFS) was the dependent variable for the longitudinal analysis. Results: The empty ZIP model was a poor fit for all four data sets, whereas the empty ZINB model showed good fit; consequently both the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted using ZINB modelling. Being in the high-SES group during childhood was associated with a greater probability of being caries-free by age 18 years, over and above that which would be expected from the negative binomial process. Low childhood SES also had the largest coefficient in the modelling of the negative binomial process, but at age 5 years, where the adjusted mean dmfs score in the low-SES group was 6.8 (compared with 4.7 and 2.9 in the medium- and high-SES groups, respectively). The substantial SES differences which existed at age 5 years (in the deciduous dentition) had reduced somewhat by age 18 years, and had widened again by age 26 years. In the longitudinal analysis, 'baseline' caries experience (age 18-year DMFS) was a predictor both of being an extra zero and of caries severity. Conclusion: This investigation of the utility of the zero-inflated approach for modelling both cross-sectional and longitudinal caries data has shown that ZIP/ZINB models can provide new insight into disease patterns. It is anticipated that they will become increasingly useful in epidemiological studies that use the DMF index as the outcome measure.