Interdecadal variability in tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea and its association with the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature
Interdecadal variability in tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea and its association with the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature
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DOI：
10.1002/grl.50171
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发表时间：
2013-02
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Lei Wang;Rong-hui Huang;R. Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lei Wang;Rong-hui Huang;R. Wu
1958-2001年南海热带气旋生成频数在20世纪70年代中期前后经历了明显的年代际变化。与1950年代末至1970年代初相比，1970年代中期至1990年代末，TC的数量显著减少。热带气旋频数的年代际变化与热带印度洋海表温度（SST）的升高有关。热带印度洋海温冷暖位相的环流差异为热带印度洋增暖对南海TC频数变化的影响提供了支持。在暖相，热带印度洋上空的低层辐合和上升气流伴随着高层辐散气流，其中一部分流向南海，导致高层辐合和下降。因此，两个低层反气旋的发展和TC的生成被抑制在南海上空。
During the period 1958–2001, the frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the South China Sea (SCS) experienced an obvious interdecadal change around the mid‐1970s. Compared to the period from late 1950s to early 1970s, the number of TCs is significantly reduced during mid‐1970s through late 1990s. This interdecadal change in the TC frequency appears to relate to the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Indian Ocean. The difference of the circulation between the warm phase and the cold phase of the tropical Indian Ocean SST provides support for the influence of the tropical Indian Ocean warming on the variability of the TC frequency over the SCS. In the warm phase, lower‐level convergent and ascending flows over the tropical Indian Ocean are accompanied by upper‐level divergent flows, part of which go toward the SCS, leading to upper‐level convergence and descent there. Consequently, two lower‐level anticyclones develop and the TC genesis is suppressed over the SCS.