Polarization, Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Civil Conflict
Polarization, Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Civil Conflict
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两极分化、横向不平等和暴力国内冲突
DOI：
10.1177/0022343307087169
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发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Gudrun Østby
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gudrun Østby
最近对内战的大规模研究得出结论，不平等不会增加暴力冲突的风险。本文认为，这样的结论可能为时过早，因为这些研究通常测试“垂直不平等”（即个人之间的收入不平等）的冲突潜力，往往忽视了不平等的群体方面。案例研究表明，冲突的关键是一个与经济和种族两极分化密切相关的概念：“横向不平等”，或与基于身份的分裂相吻合的不平等。横向不平等可能会增加相对贫困人群的不满情绪和群体凝聚力，从而促进动员冲突。本文对这一观点进行了定量检验，探讨了1986-2004年期间36个发展中国家的各种形式的两极分化和横向不平等是否影响了国内冲突爆发的可能性。来自人口和健康调查（DHS）的全国家庭数据用于构建种族、社会和经济两极分化以及沿社会和经济两个方面的纵向和横向不平等的措施。本文还介绍了种族/社会经济极化的综合衡量标准，作为横向不平等衡量标准的替代方案。面板分析和横截面分析的有力结果表明，社会两极分化和横向社会不平等与冲突爆发呈正相关。纯种族极化、个体间不平等和种族/社会经济综合极化的变量不显著。
Recent large-N studies of civil war conclude that inequality does not increase the risk of violent conflict. This article argues that such conclusions may be premature because these studies, which usually test the conflict potential of `vertical inequality' (i.e. income inequality between individuals), tend to neglect the group aspect of inequality. Case studies suggest that what matters for conflict is a concept closely linked to both economic and ethnic polarization: `horizontal inequalities', or inequalities that coincide with identity-based cleavages. Horizontal inequalities may enhance both grievances and group cohesion among the relatively deprived and thus facilitate mobilization for conflict. This article provides a quantitative test of this argument, exploring whether various forms of polarization and horizontal inequalities affect the probability of civil conflict onset across 36 developing countries in the period 1986—2004. National household data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) are used to construct measures of ethnic, social and economic polarization, as well as vertical and horizontal inequalities along two dimensions: social and economic. The article also introduces a combined measure of ethnic/socio-economic polarization as an alternative to the horizontal inequality measure. Robust results from panel and cross-section analyses show that social polarization and horizontal social inequality are positively related to conflict outbreak. Variables for purely ethnic polarization, inter-individual inequalities and combined ethnic/socio-economic polarization are not significant.