Growth paths and survival chances: An application of Gambler's Ruin theory
Growth paths and survival chances: An application of Gambler's Ruin theory
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.jbusvent.2012.06.002
复制
发表时间：
2013-09-01
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Storey, David J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coad, Alex;Frankish, Julian;Storey, David J.
本文将新企业的生存与成长联系起来，重点关注企业成长路径的模式。我们对赌徒的破产框架进行了理论推导，认为新公司的业绩最好建模为随机游走过程，但生存是非随机的，主要取决于积累的资源存量。一家公司的资源要么在企业开始时就存在，要么在成功时期产生--“赢家”。实证部分跟踪了6年来6247家英国初创企业的销售和生存/不生存情况，这些企业都是在2004年同一季度开始交易的。我们没有找到强有力的证据支持对增长路径进行分类，因为我们观察到，每条可能的增长路径发生的概率似乎大致相等。然而，我们观察到，生长路径会影响随后的生存。控制滞后的规模，我们观察到较长的增长滞后，甚至是初创企业的规模，都对生存有显著影响。(C)2012 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。
This paper links new firm survival with growth, with a focus on the patterns in firms' growth paths. We theorise a Gambler's Ruin framework by arguing that new firm performance is best modelled as a random walk process, but that survival is nonrandom and depends primarily on the stock of accumulated resources. A firm's resources are either there when the business begins or are generated by successful periods - 'wins'. The empirical section tracks, over six years, the sales and survival/non-survival of 6247 UK start-ups which all began trading in the same quarter of 2004. We do not find strong evidence in favour of a taxonomy of growth paths, because we observe that every possible growth path seems to occur with roughly equal probability. However, we observe that growth paths influence subsequent survival. Controlling for lagged size, we observe that longer lags of growth, and even start-up size, have significant effects on survival. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.