Earthquake risk assessment and management : case study, Cyprus
Earthquake risk assessment and management : case study, Cyprus
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地震风险评估和管理：案例研究，塞浦路斯
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发表时间：
2002
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通讯作者：
Stella Kythreoti
中科院分区：
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作者：
Stella Kythreoti
地震是地球上最严重的自然灾害,导致上个世纪平均每年约10000人死亡,逐步增加所造成的经济损失,达到每年200亿美元。减轻地震的不良后果通常是通过风险管理战略（RMS）来实现的，这依赖于地震风险评估（ERA）技术的发展。本文的目的是建立一个中地震活动性地区的地质灾害评估框架，该框架包含了灾害的空间方面和风险评估。该框架用于为塞浦路斯岛进行ERA，并使用该信息提出RMS。环境影响评估框架依赖于有关建筑物的位置、价值和脆弱性以及人口分布的综合数据。这些数据是从塞浦路斯政府各部门收集的。考察了各种危害和衰减模型，并通过蒙特卡罗模拟考虑了其变异性的影响。据估计，塞浦路斯的年风险略低于1000万英镑，这一价值是基于对过去一个世纪历史数据的重新评估得出的。与其他地震危险性评估方法（如递归关系）的比较表明，由于没有空间分布模型，这些方法不适合ERA。虽然预测的最大强度与支撑塞浦路斯抗震规范的强度一致（ccea - cfee, 1994），但预测的设计加速度比规范中给出的要高。因此，提出了新的地震加速度。尽管如此，目前风险的降低与抗震设计的额外成本相当。抗震改造也进行了检查，发现作为一般现代化计划的一部分，抗震升级具有成本效益。然而，无论建筑物的状况如何，都建议强制购买地震保险。目前的地震保险费率似乎是公平的，尽管它们似乎低估了地震高发地区的风险。还估计了可能的人员损失人数。本研究得出结论，ERA的结果严重依赖于所使用的模型和数据，并且两者都需要不断更新才能使ERA结果保持有意义。
Earthquakes are amongst the worst natural disasters on Earth, resulting in an annual average of around 10,000 fatalities last century and progressively increasing in the amount of economic damage they cause, reaching US $20 billion per annum this decade. The mitigation of the unwanted consequences of earthquakes is normally achieved by Risk Management Strategies (RMS), which rely on the development of Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) techniques. This thesis aims to develop a framework for ERA for medium seismicity regions that incorporates the spatial aspects of the hazard and risk evaluation. The framework is used to undertake ERA for the island of Cyprus, and the information is used to propose RMS. The ERA framework relies on comprehensive data on the location, value and vulnerability of buildings and the population distribution. These data were collected from the various Cyprus Government Departments. Various hazard and attenuation models are examined, and the effect of their variability is taken into account through Monte Carlo simulations. The estimated annual risk for Cyprus is just below £ 10 million CY. This value was estimated based on the use of the re-appraised historical data for the past-century. Comparisons with other seismic hazard assessment methods, such as recurrence relationships, have revealed that, without a spatial distribution model, such approaches are unsuitable for ERA. Though the maximum intensities predicted are in line with the ones that underpin the aseismic code of Cyprus (CCEAA-CFEE, 1994), the predicted design accelerations are higher than given in the code. Hence, new seismic accelerations are proposed. Despite that, the current reduction in risk is comparable to the additional cost of aseismic design. Seismic retrofitting was also examined and it was found that as part of a general modernisation scheme seismic upgrading is cost effective. However, whatever the state of the building, it is recommended that earthquake insurance should be made mandatory. The current seismic insurance rates appear to be fair, though they seem to underestimate the risk in the areas of high seismicity. The number of likely human losses is also estimated. This study concludes that the result of ERA is heavily dependent on the models and data used, and both require constant updating for the ERA results to remain meaningful.