Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network
Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network
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DOI：
10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104296
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发表时间：
2023-01-19
影响因子：
12.1
通讯作者：
Carter，L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Clare，M. A.;Yeo，I. A.;Carter，L.
全球海底电信电缆网络支撑着我们的日常生活，实现了全球95%以上的数字数据传输，每天的金融交易额达数万亿美元，并提供了关键的通信连接，特别是与偏远的低收入国家。海底电缆及其登陆站尽管重要，但容易受到自然灾害的破坏，包括风暴潮、海浪、旋风、地震、洪水、火山爆发、海底滑坡和冰冲刷。然而，在未来预测的气候变化情景下，许多此类事件的可能性或复发间隔可能会发生变化，并因海平面上升而加剧;可能会增加危害严重性，造成以前未预料到的危害，或危害可能在电缆系统20-30年的使用寿命期间转移到新的地点。迄今为止，还没有研究评估未来气候变化对全球范围内海底电缆和登陆站的广泛影响。在这里，我们第一次基于已发布的同行评审数据集综合了当前的证据基础，以填补这一关键的知识空白，特别是评估未来气候变化可能如何以及在何处影响海底电缆及其岸上基础设施。我们发现，由于气候变化，海洋状况极有可能在全球范围内发生变化，但气候变化、自然过程和人类活动之间的反馈和联系往往很复杂，导致地理变异程度很高。我们确定了气候变化“热点”（可能受到最大影响的地区和地点），但发现并非所有地区都将以相同的方式受到影响，也不是同步受到相同过程的影响。我们的结论是，电缆线路应仔细考虑当地可变的危险频率和规模的驱动程序。既要考虑到瞬时事件（如山崩、热带气旋），也要考虑到长期的持续影响（如甚至在深水中流动的海底洋流）。多种因素可能联合收割机一起增加海底电缆所面临的风险，因此，必须采取整体办法来评估未来自然过程和人类活动的综合影响。
A global network of subsea telecommunications cables underpins our daily lives, enabling >95% of global digital data transfer, $trillions/day in financial trading, and providing critical communications links, particularly to remote, low-income countries. Despite their importance, subsea cables and their landing stations are vulnerable to damage by natural hazards, including storm surges, waves, cyclones, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides and ice scour. However, the likelihood or recurrence interval of many of these types of events will likely change under future projected climate change scenarios, compounded by sea-level rise; potentially increasing hazard severity, creating previously unanticipated hazards, or hazards may shift to new locations during the 20–30-year operational life of cable systems. To date, no study has assessed the wide-reaching impacts of future climate change on subsea cables and landing stations on a global scale. Here, for the first time we synthesize the current evidence base, based on published peer-reviewed datasets, to fill this crucial knowledge gap, specifically to assess how and where future climate change is likely to impact subsea cables and their shore-based infrastructure. We find that ocean conditions are highly likely to change on a global basis as a result of climate change, but the feedbacks and links between climate change, natural processes and human activities are often complicated, resulting in a high degree of geographic variability. We identify climate change ‘hotspots’ (regions and locations likely to experience the greatest impacts) but find that not all areas will be affected in the same manner, nor synchronously by the same processes. We conclude that cable routes should carefully consider locally-variable drivers of hazard frequency and magnitude. Consideration should be given both to instantaneous events (e.g. landslides, tropical cyclones) as well as longer-term, sustained impacts (e.g. seabed currents that circulate even in deep water). Multiple factors can combine to increase the risk posed to subsea cables, hence a holistic approach is essential to assess the compounded effects of both natural processes and human activities in the future.