The impact of AIRS atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles on hurricane forecasts: Ike (2008) and Irene (2011)
The impact of AIRS atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles on hurricane forecasts: Ike (2008) and Irene (2011)
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DOI：
10.1007/s00376-014-3162-z
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发表时间：
2015-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Jing Zheng;Jun Yu Li;T. Schmit;Jinlong Li;Zhiquan Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jing Zheng;Jun Yu Li;T. Schmit;Jinlong Li;Zhiquan Liu
大气红外探测器的测量是对现有观测数据的宝贵补充，特别是在常规数据稀少的海洋上。在这项研究中，两种类型的AIRS检索的温度和湿度廓线，AIRS科学团队产品（SciSup）和单视场（SFOV）的研究产品，与欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的分析数据在飓风艾克（2008年）和飓风艾琳（2011年）在大西洋进行了评估。结果表明，两种类型的AIRS廓线与ECMWF的分析结果吻合较好，尤其是在200 ~ 700 hPa之间。在200 hPa下，两种温度分布的平均标准差约为1 K，其中AIRS SciSup检索的平均AIRS温度分布略低于AIRS SFOV检索的平均AIRS温度分布。在对流层中部，平均SciSup湿度廓线比SFOV略干燥。然后用天气研究和预报模式的高级研究版及其三维变分数据同化系统对飓风艾克和艾琳进行了一系列数据同化和预报试验。结果表明，由于在飓风环境中同化了AIRS晴空温度廓线，飓风轨迹有所改善。在总可降水量和降水预报方面，发现飓风湿度环境受到AIRS探空同化的影响。同时，通过同化AIRS廓线来改进飓风强度预报仍然是进一步研究的挑战。
Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) measurements are a valuable supplement to current observational data, especially over the oceans where conventional data are sparse. In this study, two types of AIRS-retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, the AIRS Science Team product (SciSup) and the single field-of-view (SFOV) research product, were evaluated with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis data over the Atlantic Ocean during Hurricane Ike (2008) and Hurricane Irene (2011). The evaluation results showed that both types of AIRS profiles agreed well with the ECMWF analysis, especially between 200 hPa and 700 hPa. The average standard deviation of both temperature profiles was approximately 1 K under 200 hPa, where the mean AIRS temperature profile from the AIRS SciSup retrievals was slightly colder than that from the AIRS SFOV retrievals. The mean SciSup moisture profile was slightly drier than that from the SFOV in the mid troposphere. A series of data assimilation and forecast experiments was then conducted with the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system for hurricanes Ike and Irene. The results showed an improvement in the hurricane track due to the assimilation of AIRS clear-sky temperature profiles in the hurricane environment. In terms of total precipitable water and rainfall forecasts, the hurricane moisture environment was found to be affected by the AIRS sounding assimilation. Meanwhile, improving hurricane intensity forecasts through assimilating AIRS profiles remains a challenge for further study.