Human strategies for coping with El Nino related drought in Amazonia
Human strategies for coping with El Nino related drought in Amazonia
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-005-9035-9
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发表时间：
2006-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Boucek, Bruce
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moran, Emilio F.;Adams, Ryan;Boucek, Bruce
本文报告了一个研究项目的结果，该项目研究了巴西亚马逊地区农民应对厄尔尼诺相关天气事件的策略。我们研究了在热带雨林环境中，小农户和大农户对这些事件的脆弱程度。尽管有证据表明厄尔尼诺/南方涛动期间发生了毁灭性的火灾，但人们很少注意厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件对亚马逊河流域的影响。尽管我们发现了一系列当地开发的预测技术和应对机制，但农民遭受了重大损失，我们认为，增加获得科学预报的机会将大大提高我们研究地区农民科普厄尔尼诺相关天气事件的能力。在亚马逊河流域，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）气候模式的厄尔尼诺阶段导致降雨量减少的时间延长（霍布斯等人，1998年）。这段降雨量减少的时期可能导致该地区农民和牧场主遭受重大农业损失，并增加森林易燃性。我们发现，我们的研究人群中的大多数人使用几种方法来预测，应对和适应干旱事件-他们认识到他们可能经历的经济损失和火灾意外蔓延造成的森林损失。我们研究地区最贫穷的农民经历了厄尔尼诺相关的干旱事件，严重威胁到他们的生计。他们的脆弱性在极端气候事件中加剧，我们的观察表明，我们研究中的所有农民都将受益于与其所在地及其当前农业战略相关的改进预测信息的增加。本文探讨了预测的可用性和使用，意外火灾的发生和技术，以防止火灾相关的损失，以及应对机制，以处理厄尔尼诺相关的干旱在农业地区周围的阿尔塔米拉和桑塔雷姆的城市，在帕拉州，巴西。在研究结束时分发一套厄尔尼诺预测资料和举办一系列讲习班，可能会使当地更好地了解降雨量的变化情况，并建立一个由农民维持的收集站网络，使农民了解该地区降雨量的变化及其财产。
This article reports on findings of a research project examining farmers' coping strategies in the Brazilian Amazon in response to El Nino related weather events. We examine the extent of vulnerability of small and large farmers to these events in a tropical rainforest environment. Little attention has been given to the impact of ENSO events in Amazonia, despite evidence for devastating fires during ENSOs. Although we found a range of locally developed forecasting techniques and coping mechanisms, farmers have sustained significant losses, and we suggest that increased access to scientific forecasts would greatly enhance the ability of the farmers in our study area to cope with El Nino related weather events.In Amazonia the El Nino phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern leads to an extended period of reduced rainfall (Hobbs et al., 1998). This period of reduced rainfall can result in significant agricultural losses for farmers and ranchers in the area and in increased forest flammability. We have found that the majority of our study population uses several methods of forecasting, coping with, and adapting to drought events - and they recognize the economic losses they can experience and the loss of forests through the accidental spread of fire. The poorest farmers in our study area experience El Nino related drought events as a serious threat to their livelihoods. Their vulnerability is heightened during extreme climate events and our observations revealed that all of the farmers in our study would benefit from increased availability of improved forecast information relevant to their locality and their current farming strategies. This paper examines the availability and use of forecasts, the occurrence of accidental fires and techniques to prevent fire related losses, and the coping mechanisms for dealing with El Nino related drought in the agricultural regions surrounding the cities of Altamira and Santarem, in Para State, Brazil. Distribution of an El Nino Prediction Kit at the end of the study and a series of workshops may lead to better local information on rainfall variability and create a farmer-maintained grid of collecting stations to sensitize farmers to the variability of precipitation in the region, and on their property.