Spatio-temporal Changes and Associated Uncertainties of CENTURY-modelled SOC for Chinese Upland Soils, 1980–2010
Spatio-temporal Changes and Associated Uncertainties of CENTURY-modelled SOC for Chinese Upland Soils, 1980–2010
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1980 年至 2010 年中国旱地土壤 CENTURY 模型 SOC 的时空变化和相关不确定性
DOI：
10.1007/s11769-021-1179-7
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发表时间：
2021-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
YAN Fang1
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
LIU Xiaoyu;ZHAO Yongcun;SHI Xuezheng;WANG Shihang;FENG Xiang;YAN Fang1
研究农田土壤有机碳的时空变化对提高土壤肥力、减缓气候变化具有重要意义。然而，关于中国高地土壤有机碳时空变化及其不确定性的信息和知识仍然有限。利用世纪模型估算了1980 - 2010年中国旱地土壤有机碳储量及其变化。利用蒙特卡罗方法，量化了与空间异质模型输入相关的CENTURY模型SOC动态的不确定性。结果表明，中国旱地土壤有机碳储量从1980年的3.03（1.59 ~ 4.78）Pg C增加到2010年的3.40（2.39 ~ 4.62）Pg C.在此期间SOC储存的增量为370 Tg C，不确定性区间为-140至1110 Tg C。土壤有机碳变化的区域差异显著，黄淮海平原土壤有机碳积累量较大，东北地区土壤有机碳流失量较大。草甸土、黑土和潮土的有机碳流失最严重，潮土、褐土和紫色土的有机碳积累最显著。在模拟大规模的SOC动态，初始土壤性质的不确定性的主要来源。因此，必须收集有关土壤特性的更详细的信息。2010年中国旱地土壤有机碳储量仍然较低，表明农业管理措施与有效的经济和政策激励相结合是这些地区未来固碳的必要条件。
Detailed information on the spatio-temporal changes of cropland soil organic carbon (SOC) can significantly contribute to the improvement of soil fertility and mitigate climate change. Nonetheless, information and knowledge on the national scale spatio-temporal changes and the corresponding uncertainties of SOC in Chinese upland soils remain limited. The CENTURY model was used to estimate the SOC storages and their changes in Chinese uplands from 1980 to 2010. With the Monte Carlo method, the uncertainties of CENTURY-modelled SOC dynamics associated with the spatial heterogeneous model inputs were quantified. Results revealed that the SOC storage in Chinese uplands increased from 3.03 (1.59 to 4.78) Pg C in 1980 to 3.40 (2.39 to 4.62) Pg C in 2010. Increment of SOC storage during this period was 370 Tg C, with an uncertainty interval of −140 to 1110 Tg C. The regional disparities of SOC changes reached a significant level, with considerable SOC accumulation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China and SOC loss in the northeastern China. The SOC lost from Meadow soils, Black soils and Chernozems was most severe, whilst SOC accumulation in Fluvo-aquic soils, Cinnamon soils and Purplish soils was most significant. In modelling large-scale SOC dynamics, the initial soil properties were major sources of uncertainty. Hence, more detailed information concerning the soil properties must be collected. The SOC stock of Chinese uplands in 2010 was still relatively low, manifesting that recommended agricultural management practices in conjunction with effectively economic and policy incentives to farmers for soil fertility improvement were indispensable for future carbon sequestration in these regions.
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
S. Feng
通讯作者：
S. Feng
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Yongqiang Yu;Yao Huang;Wen Zhang
通讯作者：
Yongqiang Yu;Yao Huang;Wen Zhang
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
A. Korsaeth;T. Henriksen;Anne-Grete Roer;A. Strømman
通讯作者：
A. Korsaeth;T. Henriksen;Anne-Grete Roer;A. Strømman
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
LI, CS;FROLKING, S;FROLKING, TA
通讯作者：
FROLKING, TA
DOI：
10.24215/16699513e053
发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
Revista de la Facultad de Agronomía
影响因子：
--
作者：
María Paz Salazar;Rafael Villarreal;L. A. Lozano;María Florencia Otero;N. Polich;G. Bellora;C. G. Sor
通讯作者：
María Paz Salazar;Rafael Villarreal;L. A. Lozano;María Florencia Otero;N. Polich;G. Bellora;C. G. Sor