Population-based estimates of healthy working life expectancy in England at age 50 years: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
Population-based estimates of healthy working life expectancy in England at age 50 years: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
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DOI：
10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30114-6
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发表时间：
2020-07-01
影响因子：
50
通讯作者：
Wilkie, Ross
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Parker, Marty;Bucknall, Milica;Wilkie, Ross
背景 许多国家都在提高退休年龄，以应对人口老龄化的挑战，但人们在以后的工作生涯（> 50 年）中工作更长时间的能力尚不清楚。我们的目的是估计英格兰的健康预期工作寿命。 方法 这项分析包括英国老龄化纵向研究 (ELSA) 六波 (2002-13) 中 50 岁及以上的成年人，并附有相关的死亡率数据。健康预期寿命被定义为从 50 岁起预计健康（不限制长期疾病）和从事有偿工作（就业或自营职业）的平均年数。使用插值马尔可夫链多州模型对英格兰整体健康预期寿命进行了估计，并按性别、受教育程度、贫困水平、职业类型和地区进行分层。调查结果有 15 284 名受访者（7025 名男性和 8259 名女性）提供了研究期间的调查和死亡率数据。 50 岁时的健康预期寿命平均为 9.42 岁（男性 10.94 岁 [95% CI 10.65-11.23]，女性 8.25 岁 [7.92-8.58]），预期寿命为 31.76 岁（男性 30.05 岁，女性 33.49 岁）。在英格兰，从 50 岁开始，预计在不健康状况下工作的年限为 1.84 年（95% CI 1.74-1.94）。健康预期寿命最长的人口亚组是自营职业者（11.76岁[95% CI 10.76-12.76]）或非体力职业者（10.32岁[9.95-10.69]）、受过高等教育的人（11.27岁[10.74-11.80]）、居住在英格兰南部的人（10.73岁）东南部地区为 [10.16-11.30]，西南部地区为 10.51 岁 [9.80-11.22]），以及生活在最贫困地区的人（10.53 岁 [10.06-10.99]）。 解释 英格兰 50 岁时的健康预期工作寿命低于领取国家养老金年龄的剩余年数。社会经济地位较低的老年工人，尤其是英格兰特定地区的老年工人，可能会受益于积极主动的改善健康、工作场所环境和就业机会的方法，从而提高他们的健康预期工作寿命。对健康预期寿命的持续监测将进一步检验这些方法以及延长工作寿命的政策是否成功。版权所有 (C) 2020 作者。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版
Background Retirement ages are rising in many countries to offset the challenges of population ageing, but people's capacity to work for more years in their later working life (>50 years) is unclear. We aimed to estimate healthy working life expectancy in England.Methods This analysis included adults aged 50 years and older from six waves (2002-13) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), with linked mortality data. Healthy working life expectancy was defined as the average number of years expected to be spent healthy (no limiting long-standing illness) and in paid work (employment or self-employment) from age 50 years. Healthy working life expectancy was estimated for England overall and stratified by sex, educational attainment, deprivation level, occupation type, and region by use of interpolated Markov chain multi-state modelling.Findings There were 15 284 respondents (7025 men and 8259 women) with survey and mortality data for the study period. Healthy working life expectancy at age 50 years was on average 9.42 years (10.94 years [95% CI 10.65-11.23] for men and 8.25 years [7.92-8.58] for women) and life expectancy was 31.76 years (30.05 years for men and 33.49 years for women). The number of years expected to be spent unhealthy and in work from age 50 years was 1.84 years (95% CI 1.74-1.94) in England overall. Population subgroups with the longest healthy working life expectancy were the self-employed (11.76 years [95% CI 10.76-12.76]) or those with non-manual occupations (10.32 years [9.95-10.69]), those with a tertiary education (11.27 years [10.74-11.80]), those living in southern England (10.73 years [10.16-11.30] in the South East and 10.51 years [9.80-11.22] in the South West), and those living in the least deprived areas (10.53 years [10.06-10.99]).Interpretation Healthy working life expectancy at age 50 years in England is below the remaining years to State Pension age. Older workers of lower socioeconomic status and in particular regions in England might benefit from proactive approaches to improve health, workplace environments, and job opportunities to improve their healthy working life expectancy. Continued monitoring of healthy working life expectancy would provide further examination of the success of such approaches and that of policies to extend working lives. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.