Early human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox, May 2022.
Early human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox, May 2022.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/s2589-7500(22)00127-3
复制
发表时间：
2022-08
影响因子：
30.8
通讯作者：
Cambeiro, Juan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McAndrew, Thomas;Majumder, Maimuna S.;Lover, Andrew A.;Venkatramanan, Srini;Bocchini, Paolo;Besiroglu, Tamay;Codi, Allison;Braun, David;Dempsey, Gaia;Abbott, Sam;Chevalier, Sylvain;Bosse, Nikos, I;Cambeiro, Juan
从2022年5月开始，在包括英国、西班牙、葡萄牙和美国在内的多个国家观察到猴痘病毒感染集群。1作为回应，美国疾病控制和预防中心和世卫组织加强了对正痘病毒感染的监测，并要求医疗保健提供者对出现与人类猴痘一致的皮疹样疾病的患者保持警惕。1，2我们与Metaculus（一个预测技术平台）合作，提出了一项持续的人类判断努力，以进行众包集合预测（1）截至2022年12月31日全球报告的人类猴痘感染的估计数量，（2）截至2022年12月31日全球因人类猴痘死亡的估计数量，（3）截至2022年7月1日，欧洲各地报告的猴痘病例数量，（4）截至2022年7月1日，美国报告的猴痘病例数量，（5）截至2022年7月1日，加拿大报告的猴痘病例数量，（6）到2022年7月31日将报告至少一例人类猴痘病例的国家数量，（7）到2022年7月1日将报告至少一例病例的美国州数量，以及（8）世卫组织是否会在12月31日之前宣布猴痘疫情为国际关注的突发公共卫生事件（PHEIC），2022.
Beginning in May, 2022, clusters of monkeypox virus infection have been observed in multiple countries, including the UK, Spain, Portugal, and the USA. 1 In response, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and WHO have increased surveillance for orthopoxvirus infections and have asked healthcare providers to be alert for patients who present with a rash-like illness that is consistent with human monkeypox. 1, 2We present an ongoing human judgment effort in collaboration with Metaculus—a forecasting technology platform—to make crowdsourced ensemble predictions of (1) the estimated number of reported human monkeypox infections globally as of Dec 31, 2022,(2) the estimated number of deaths due to human monkeypox globally as of Dec 31, 2022,(3) the number of monkeypox cases reported across Europe as of July 1, 2022,(4) the number of monkeypox cases reported in the USA as of July 1, 2022,(5) the number of monkeypox cases reported in Canada as of July 1, 2022,(6) the number of countries that will report at least one case of human monkeypox by July 31, 2022,(7) the number of US states that will report at least one case by July 1, 2022, and (8) whether WHO will declare the monkeypox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before Dec 31, 2022.