A new method for estimating the effort required to control an infectious disease
A new method for estimating the effort required to control an infectious disease
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2003.2339
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发表时间：
2003-07-07
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Heesterbeek, JAP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Roberts, MG;Heesterbeek, JAP
本文提出了一个新的传染病流行病学分析阈值。数量在概念上类似于熟悉的基本繁殖率R-0，但它挑出特定的宿主类型，而不是提供一个标准，是统一的所有主机类型。使用这种方法，我们能够确定疾病控制策略对特定亚群的人口的长期影响，估计控制水平时，需要针对控制工作在一个子集的主机类型，并确定主机类型，构成一个水库的感染。这些见解不能通过单独使用R-0来获得。
We propose a new threshold quantity for the analysis of the epidemiology of infectious diseases. The quantity is similar in concept to the familiar basic reproduction ratio, R-0, but it singles out particular host types instead of providing a criterion that is uniform for all host types. Using this methodology we are able to identify the long-term effects of disease-control strategies for particular subgroups of the population, to estimate the level of control necessary when targeting control effort at a subset of host types, and to identify host types that constitute a reservoir of infection. These insights cannot be obtained by using R-0 alone.