Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter
Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter
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冬季北大西洋涡流驱动急流的十年可预测性
DOI：
10.1002/essoar.10512819.1
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Marcheggiani A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Marcheggiani A
本文对冬季北大西洋涛动（NAO）在年代际尺度上可预测的工作进行了扩展，以量化捕捉北大西洋涡旋驱动的喷气机的位置和速度的技能。通过关注第6次耦合模式比对项目1960-2005年期间2-9年的年代际预测，我们发现与NAO技能相关的急流纬度和速度都有显著的技能。然而，所有三个指标中的技能似乎对其评估的时期很敏感。特别是，在评估到目前为止的后预报时，由于模式未能捕捉到最近观测到的北移和冬季涡流驱动的喷气式飞机的加强以及更积极的NAO，因此技能大大下降。我们认为大气环流技能的下降与北大西洋表面温度技能的降低有关。
This paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet’s location and speed. By focussing on decadal predictions made for years 2-9 from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960-2005 we find that there is significant skill in both jet latitude and speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in all three metrics appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, the skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the latest observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy-driven jet and more positive NAO. We suggest the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic Sea surface temperature.