Simulating the Evolutionary Response of a Viral Pandemic to Behaviour Change
Simulating the Evolutionary Response of a Viral Pandemic to Behaviour Change
复制标题
模拟病毒大流行对行为改变的进化反应
DOI：
10.1162/isal_a_00691
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hinsch M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hinsch M
全球SARS-CoV-2大流行的发展特点是出现了新的“关注变体”（VOC），这些变体改变了传播率和免疫逃逸能力。虽然许多研究使用基于代理的模拟来模拟病毒在人群中的传播和传播，但很少有人研究改变人类行为对病毒进化的影响。在这里，我们展示了一个原型模拟，其中一个模拟的病毒不断演变的代理人口改变其行为，以应对感知的威胁所造成的病毒。这两种突变影响宿主内和宿主间的进化进行了模拟。该模型表明，进化可以大大减少个人行为和政策对大流行病传播的影响。特别是，只要有一小部分不遵守政策，就足以使应对措施失效，并导致高传染性变种的传播。
The progression of the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the emergence of novel ‘variants of concern’ (VOCs), which have altered transmission rates and immune escape capabilities. While numerous studies have used agent-based simulation to model the transmission and spread of the virus within populations, few have examined the impact of altered human behaviour in response to the evolution of the virus. Here we demonstrate a prototype simulation in which a simulated virus continually evolves as the agent population alters its behaviour in response to the perceived threat posed by the virus. Both mutations influencing intra-host and inter-host evolution are simulated. The model shows that evolution can dramatically reduce the effect of individual behaviour and policies on the spread of a pandemic. In particular only a small proportion of non-compliance with policies is sufficient to render countermeasures ineffective and lead to the spread of highly infectious variants.