Performance evaluation of subsea BOP control systems using dynamic Bayesian networks with imperfect repair and preventive maintenance
Performance evaluation of subsea BOP control systems using dynamic Bayesian networks with imperfect repair and preventive maintenance
复制标题
使用具有不完善修复和预防性维护的动态贝叶斯网络进行海底防喷器控制系统的性能评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.engappai.2013.08.011
复制
发表时间：
2013-11
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Xin Dong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yunwei Zhang;Shilin Yu;Zengkai Liu;Xin Dong
本文提出了一种动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）模型，用于串联、并联和2oo3表决系统的建模，考虑了共因故障、不完全覆盖、不完全维修和预防性维护。提出了一个、两个和三个部件失效的七个基本事件，用于三部件系统的共因失效模型。通过定义覆盖因子，在条件概率表中对不完全覆盖进行建模。采用多状态退化部件对不完全维修和预防性维修进行建模。利用该方法，建立了海底防喷器（BOP）控制系统的DBN模型，并对其可靠性和可用性进行了评估。研究了互信息量的概念，以评价基本事件的重要程度。研究了退化概率、失效率和平均修复时间对系统性能的影响。结果表明，维修和维护能显著提高系统性能，而不完全维修与完全维修相比不会显著降低系统性能，预防性维护与不完全维修相比能略微提高系统性能。为提高水下防喷器控制系统的性能，应重视单一地面部件和全共因故障部件。退化概率对系统性能的影响程度依次为PLC、PC和ES。故障率和MTTR对性能的影响大小依次为PLC、ES、PC、DO、DI和AI。
The work presents a dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) modeling of series, parallel and 2-out-of-3 (2oo3) voting systems, taking account of common-cause failure, imperfect coverage, imperfect repair and preventive maintenance. Seven basic events of one, two or three component failure are proposed to model the common-cause failure of the three-components-systems. The imperfect coverage is modeled in the conditional probability table by defining a coverage factor. A multi-state degraded component is used to model the imperfect repair and preventive maintenance. Using the proposed method, a DBN modeling of a subsea blowout preventer (BOP) control system is built, and the reliability and availability are evaluated. The mutual information is researched in order to assess the important degree of basic events. The effects of degradation probability, failure rate and mean time to repair (MTTR) on the performances are studied. The results show that the repairs and maintenance can improve the system performance significantly, whereas the imperfect repair cannot degrade the system performance significantly in comparison with the perfect repair, and the preventive maintenance can improve the system performance slightly in comparison with the imperfect repair. In order to improve the performance of subsea BOP control system, the single surface components and the components with all-common-cause failure should given more attention. The influence of degradation probability on the performance is in the order of PLC, PC and ES. The influence of failure rate and MTTR on the performance is in the order of PLC, ES, PC, DO, DI and AI.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.engappai.2010.06.003
发表时间：
2012-06
期刊：
Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell.
影响因子：
--
作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2009.06.007
发表时间：
2009-12
期刊：
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影响因子：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
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影响因子：
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影响因子：
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