The Zero Lower Bound, the Dual Mandate, and Unconventional Dynamics
The Zero Lower Bound, the Dual Mandate, and Unconventional Dynamics
复制标题
零下限、双重使命和非常规动态
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2218575
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Gavin;Benjamin D. Keen;A. W. Richter;Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
本文考察了名义利率零下限约束下的货币政策。我们的分析使用了一个非线性的新凯恩斯主义模型与技术和贴现因素的冲击。具体来说，我们研究了为什么技术冲击可能会在ZLB产生非常规影响，什么因素会影响冲击ZLB的可能性，以及替代货币政策规则的影响。我们首先关注没有资本的新凯恩斯主义模型（模型1），然后研究有资本的模型（模型2）。纳入资本的好处是，它引入了另一种跨期替代机制，加强了ZLB的预期效应。得出了四个主要结论：（1）在模型1中，当ZLB约束时，泰勒规则中产出目标的选择可能会逆转技术冲击的影响;（2）在模型2中，当中央银行以稳态产出为目标时，ZLB处的正技术冲击导致比模型1更显著的非常规动态;（3）资本的存在改变了需求冲击的质的影响，并改变了强调产出稳定的货币政策规则的影响;（4）在模型1中，约束线性解是非线性解的一个很好的近似，但模型2中的解之间存在有意义的差异。
This paper examines monetary policy when it is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Our analysis uses a nonlinear New Keynesian model with technology and discount factor shocks. Specifically, we investigate why technology shocks may have unconventional effects at the ZLB, what factors affect the likelihood of hitting the ZLB, and the implications of alternative monetary policy rules. We initially focus on a New Keynesian model without capital (Model 1) and then study that model with capital (Model 2). The advantage of including capital is that it introduces another mechanism for intertemporal substitution that strengthens the expectational effects of the ZLB. Four main findings emerge: (1) In Model 1, the choice of output target in the Taylor rule may reverse the effects of technology shocks when the ZLB binds; (2) When the central bank targets steady-state output in Model 2, a positive technology shock at the ZLB leads to more pronounced unconventional dynamics than in Model 1; (3) The presence of capital changes the qualitative effects of demand shocks and alters the impact of a monetary policy rule that emphasizes output stability; and (4) In Model 1, the constrained linear solution is a decent approximation of the nonlinear solution, but meaningful differences exist between the solutions in Model 2.