Are we underestimating the ecological and evolutionary effects of warming? Interactions with other environmental drivers may increase species vulnerability to high temperatures
Are we underestimating the ecological and evolutionary effects of warming? Interactions with other environmental drivers may increase species vulnerability to high temperatures
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DOI：
10.1111/oik.09155
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发表时间：
2022-12-14
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Thomas, Mridul K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Litchman, Elena;Thomas, Mridul K.
气候变暖是全球环境变化最突出的方面，已经影响到地球上的大多数生态系统。近年来，生物学家越来越多地将变暖的影响纳入他们的模型，捕捉温度如何塑造他们的生理，生态，行为，进化适应和灭绝/灭绝的概率。预测外温动物反应的更有生理基础的方法使用通过测量不同温度下的物种性能（例如生长速率）获得的热性能曲线（TPC）。通常测量TPC，而其他因素保持恒定在良性水平，以“隔离”温度的影响。在这里，我们强调，这种做法描绘了一幅误导性的画面，因为TPC是其他因素的功能，包括全球变化的压力。我们审查的证据表明，资源限制，pH值，氧气和CO2浓度，盐度，水的可用性，寄生虫和互利，所有影响TPC形状和热性状，如最佳生长温度。来自各种生物-浮游植物、原生生物、植物、昆虫和鱼类-的证据表明，这种相互作用增加了生物对高温的敏感性（在互利共生者的情况下减少了这种敏感性）。如果不考虑这些相互作用，可能会导致对自然界表现的错误预测和对变暖风险的低估。我们讨论了这种相互作用对生态群落的一般模式和可能的后果。但重要的是，与TPC的交互具有我们可以学习的共同特征。将这些相互作用纳入种群和群落模型，应该会对物种在自然界中的表现有更深入的了解和更准确的预测，以及在气候变暖的情况下管理自然和农业生态系统的策略。
Warming, the most prominent aspect of global environmental change, already affects most ecosystems on Earth. In recent years, biologists have increasingly integrated the effects of warming into their models by capturing how temperature shapes their physiology, ecology, behavior, evolutionary adaptation and probability of extirpation/extinction. The more physiologically-grounded approaches to predicting ectotherms' responses use thermal performance curves (TPCs) obtained by measuring species performance (e.g. growth rate) under different temperatures. TPCs are typically measured while other factors are held constant at benign levels to 'isolate' the effects of temperature. Here we highlight that this practice paints a misleading picture because TPCs are functions of other factors, including global change stressors. We review evidence that resource limitation, pH, oxygen and CO2 concentration, salinity, water availability, parasites and mutualists, all influence TPC shape and thermal traits such as optimum temperature for growth. Evidence from a wide variety of organisms - phytoplankton, protists, plants, insects and fish - points towards such interactions increasing organisms' susceptibility to high temperatures (reducing it in the case of mutualists). Failing to account for these interactions is likely to lead to erroneous predictions of performance in nature and an underestimation of the risks of warming. We discuss the general patterns and possible consequences of such interactions for ecological communities. But importantly, interactions with TPCs share common features that we can learn from. Incorporating these interactions into population and community models should lead to deeper insights and more accurate predictions of species' performance in nature - as well as strategies for managing natural and agricultural ecosystems in the face of warming.