Stochastic Multi-Modal Transport Network under Demand Uncertainties and Adverse Weather Condition
Stochastic Multi-Modal Transport Network under Demand Uncertainties and Adverse Weather Condition
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trc.2010.05.018
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发表时间：
2011-04
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
A. Sumalee;K. Uchida;W. Lam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Sumalee;K. Uchida;W. Lam
本文提出了一种考虑需求和供给双方不确定性的多式联运网络分配模型。这些不确定因素是由于恶劣的天气状况对不同模式造成不同程度的影响。在共线框架下，推导了随机客流的均值和方差-协方差，以及路线/方式选择模型中的非效用项。假设风险厌恶型出行者在路径选择决策中同时考虑每条多模式路径上随机感知出行时间的均值和方差。该模型还考虑了旅行者的感知误差，使用Probit随机用户平衡框架，这是制定为不动点问题。提出了一种求解不动点问题的启发式算法。最后通过数值算例说明了该模型的应用。
This paper proposes a multi-modal transport network assignment model considering uncertainties in both demand and supply sides of the network. These uncertainties are due to adverse weather conditions with different degrees of impacts on different modes. The paper provides the derivations of mean and variance–covariance of the stochastic passenger flows and dis-utility terms involved in the route/mode choice model under the common-line framework. The risk-averse travelers are assumed to consider both the mean and variance of the random perceived travel time on each multi-modal path in their path choice decisions. The model also considers travelers’ perception errors by using a Probit stochastic user equilibrium framework which is formulated as fixed point problem. A heuristic solution algorithm is proposed to solve the fixed point problem. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the applications of the proposed model.