Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities
Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-006-9166-7
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发表时间：
2007-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Patz, Jonathan A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bell, Michelle L.;Goldberg, Richard;Patz, Jonathan A.
我们调查了气候变化如何影响环境臭氧浓度以及随后对人类健康的影响。在20世纪90年代和21世纪50年代，分别对美国东部50个城市的五个代表性夏季的小时浓度进行了估计，分别反映了当前和预测的未来气候。对未来浓度的估计是根据气专委A2设想方案，使用全球气候、区域气候和区域空气质量模型。这项工作并不探讨未来人为排放变化的影响，但孤立的气候变化对臭氧和健康的影响。在预测的未来气候条件下，这些城市的臭氧水平估计会增加，目前污染严重的城市的增加幅度最大。平均而言，在50个城市中，夏季每日1小时最大值增加了4.8 ppb，最大增幅为9.6 ppb。超过8小时监管标准的平均天数/夏季增加了68%。臭氧水平升高相当于每日总死亡率增加约0.11%至0.27%。虽然未来臭氧的实际浓度取决于气候和其他影响，如人为前体排放的变化，但本文介绍的结果表明，在其他因素不变的情况下，气候变化可能会对空气质量产生负面影响，从而损害人类健康。
We investigated how climate change could affect ambient ozone concentrations and the subsequent human health impacts. Hourly concentrations were estimated for 50 eastern US cities for five representative summers each in the 1990s and 2050s, reflecting current and projected future climates, respectively. Estimates of future concentrations were based on the IPCC A2 scenario using global climate, regional climate, and regional air quality models. This work does not explore the effects of future changes in anthropogenic emissions, but isolates the impact of altered climate on ozone and health. The cities' ozone levels are estimated to increase under predicted future climatic conditions, with the largest increases in cities with present-day high pollution. On average across the 50 cities, the summertime daily 1-h maximum increased 4.8 ppb, with the largest increase at 9.6 ppb. The average number of days/summer exceeding the 8-h regulatory standard increased 68%. Elevated ozone levels correspond to approximately a 0.11% to 0.27% increase in daily total mortality. While actual future ozone concentrations depend on climate and other influences such as changes in emissions of anthropogenic precursors, the results presented here indicate that with other factors constant, climate change could detrimentally affect air quality and thereby harm human health.