Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025
Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025
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2025 年之前欧洲天然气市场前景
DOI：
10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol30-nosi-9
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Kemfert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Holz;C. Hirschhausen;C. Kemfert
我们应用EMF 23研究设计来模拟参考案例和2025年欧洲天然气供应情景的影响。我们使用GASMOD，这是一个欧洲天然气供应的战略多层模型，包括上游天然气生产商，每个消费欧洲国家（或地区）的贸易商和最终需求。我们的模型结果表明，欧洲天然气的整体供应情况发生了相当温和的变化，这表明目前对能源供应安全问题的担忧可能被高估了。未来LNG在欧洲天然气进口中的份额可能会增加，俄罗斯不会主导欧洲进口（占201/3的份额），中东将继续成为一个相当温和的供应国，英国正在成功地从天然气出口国转变为通往欧洲大陆的液化天然气过境节点，以及拥挤的管道基础设施，在某些情况下液化天然气终端，这将继续是欧洲天然气市场的一个特点，但比目前的情况要少。
We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic several-layer model of European natural gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate the European imports (share of ∼1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain a feature of the European natural gas markets, but less than in the current situation.