The formation of preference in risky choice
The formation of preference in risky choice
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007201
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发表时间：
2019-08-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Usher, Marius
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Glickman, Moshe;Sharoni, Orian;Usher, Marius
决策中的一个关键问题是，人们如何将数量和概率结合起来，在风险较高的选择之间形成偏好。在这里，我们依靠边界积分的一般原理来开发几个生物学上看似合理的风险选择过程模型，这些模型既考虑了选择，也考虑了反应时间。这些模型使我们能够对比两种有影响力的相互竞争的理论：i)基于数量和概率之间的乘性交互作用的备选方案内评估，ii)跨备选方案的属性内比较。为了限制偏好的形成过程，我们监测了两对简单彩票之间的决策过程中的眼睛注视，旨在系统地跨越决策空间。行为结果表明，参与者的眼睛扫描模式与风险偏好和期望值最大化有关。至关重要的是，模型比较显示，在考虑选择和响应时间方面，替代内流程模型明显优于属性内流程模型。这些发现阐明了在做出风险选择时潜在的偏好形成的心理过程，并表明补偿性的选择内整合是人类决策中使用的一种适应性机制。
A key question in decision-making is how people integrate amounts and probabilities to form preferences between risky alternatives. Here we rely on the general principle of integration-to-boundary to develop several biologically plausible process models of risky-choice, which account for both choices and response-times. These models allowed us to contrast two influential competing theories: i) within-alternative evaluations, based on multiplicative interaction between amounts and probabilities, ii) within-attribute comparisons across alternatives. To constrain the preference formation process, we monitored eye-fixations during decisions between pairs of simple lotteries, designed to systematically span the decision-space. The behavioral results indicate that the participants' eye-scanning patterns were associated with risk-preferences and expected-value maximization. Crucially, model comparisons showed that within-alternative process models decisively outperformed within-attribute ones, in accounting for choices and response-times. These findings elucidate the psychological processes underlying preference formation when making risky-choices, and suggest that compensatory, within-alternative integration is an adaptive mechanism employed in human decision-making.