The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics
The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0510525103
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发表时间：
2006-02-14
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Vespignani, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Colizza, V;Barrat, A;Vespignani, A
对大规模网络的系统研究揭示了普遍存在的连接模式，其特征是大规模的异质性和无界的统计波动。这些特征极大地影响了网络上扩散过程的行为，决定了其演化模式和动力学的统计特性。在这篇文章中，我们提出了一个随机计算框架，考虑到完整的全球航空旅行基础设施与人口普查数据的补充，预测全球流行病。我们解决了全球流行病建模中的两个基本问题：（i）我们研究了航空运输网络的大规模属性在确定新出现疾病的全球扩散模式中的作用;（ii）我们评估了疾病传播和交通流量内在随机性方面的预测和爆发情景的可靠性。为了解决这些问题，我们定义了一组能够表征流行病模式的异质性和可预测性水平的定量指标。这些措施可用于分析遏制政策和流行病风险评估。
The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large-scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this article, we present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete worldwide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: (i) we study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; and (ii) we evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. To address these issues we define a set of quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment.