Future of Winter in Northeastern North America: Climate Indicators Portray Warming and Snow Loss That Will Impact Ecosystems and Communities
Future of Winter in Northeastern North America: Climate Indicators Portray Warming and Snow Loss That Will Impact Ecosystems and Communities
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DOI：
10.1656/045.028.s1112
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发表时间：
2022-02
影响因子：
0.4
通讯作者：
E. Burakowski;A. Contosta;D. Grogan;S. Nelson;S. Garlick;N. Casson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Burakowski;A. Contosta;D. Grogan;S. Nelson;S. Garlick;N. Casson
-北美东北部的冬季比夏季变暖得更快，对生态系统和社会产生了影响。全球气候模式（GCMs）表明，未来冬季将继续变暖并减少降雪，但关于变暖的幅度仍存在不确定性。在此，我们基于与气候相关决策相关的精细空间尺度（1/16°）北美东北部地区的排放水平，预测了气候变暖较低和较高情景下冬季指标的未来趋势。在这两种气候情景下，冬季继续变暖，同时高于冰点的天数增加，积雪天数减少，低于冰点的夜晚减少。深层积雪的寿命越来越短，在气候变暖、高排放的情况下，从历史基线的亚高原栖息地2个月减少到不到1个月。温暖的冬季气温使得入侵的害虫，如铁杉（铁杉）和frondendroctonus frontalis（南松甲虫）向北扩展它们的活动范围，因为越冬死亡率降低。与南部和沿海地区相比，高海拔地区对冬季变暖的适应能力更强。自然积雪的减少和气温的升高表明，在价值数百万美元的冬季娱乐和森林管理经济中，需要采取适应和缓解措施。
- Winters in northeastern North America have warmed faster than summers, with impacts on ecosystems and society. Global climate models (GCMs) indicate that winters will continue to warm and lose snow in the future, but uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of warming. Here, we project future trends in winter indicators under lower and higher climate-warming scenarios based on emission levels across northeastern North America at a fine spatial scale (1/16°) relevant to climate-related decision making. Under both climate scenarios, winters continue to warm with coincident increases in days above freezing, decreases in days with snow cover, and fewer nights below freezing. Deep snow-packs become increasingly short-lived, decreasing from a historical baseline of 2 months of subnivium habitat to <1 month under the warmer, higher-emissions climate scenario. Warmer winter temperatures allow invasive pests such as Adelges tsugae (Hemlock Woolly Adelgid) and Dendroctonus frontalis (Southern Pine Beetle) to expand their range north-ward due to reduced overwinter mortality. The higher elevations remain more resilient to winter warming compared to more southerly and coastal regions. Decreases in natural snowpack and warmer temperatures point toward a need for adaptation and mitigation in the multi-million-dollar winter-recreation and forest-management economies.