Co-dynamics of measles and dysentery diarrhea diseases with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis
Co-dynamics of measles and dysentery diarrhea diseases with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amc.2018.11.049
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发表时间：
2019-04-15
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Theuri, David Mwangi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berhe, Hailay Weldegiorgis;Makinde, Oluwole Daniel;Theuri, David Mwangi
在这篇文章中，我们提出了一个单一宿主群体中麻疹和痢疾疾病的协同动力学确定性系统。利用中心流形理论，我们证明了协同动力学模型对于某些参数值可能会表现出向后分叉。系统的数值模拟表明，当R-0和R-1时，两种疾病总是共存。系统被扩展到包括依赖时间的控制变量：疫苗接种、治疗和环境卫生，以最小化感染人数和实施控制的成本。利用庞特里亚金最大值原理，得到了最优控制存在的必要条件。数值模拟结果表明，有效的控制措施可以减少社区疾病的发生。采用增量成本-效果比量化成本-效果分析。研究发现，实施接种疫苗、治疗痢疾和环境卫生的控制策略是最具成本效益的。(C)2018 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。
In this paper we propose a co-dynamics deterministic system for measles and dysentery diarrhea diseases in a single host population. Using center manifold theory, we show that the co-dynamics model may exhibit a backward bifurcation for some parameter values. Numerical simulations of the system show that the two diseases always coexist if R-0 > 1. The system is extended to include time-dependent control-variables: vaccination, treatment and sanitation of the environment, to minimize the number of infected humans and the cost of implementation of the controls. The Pontryagin Maximum Principle was employed to find the necessary conditions for the existence of the optimal controls. The numerical simulations show that the effective controls could reduce the diseases in the community. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was used to quantify the cost-effectiveness analysis. It is found that the control strategy which implements vaccination, treatment of dysentery diarrhea and sanitation of the environment is the most cost-effective. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.