Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures
Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwh255
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发表时间：
2004-09-15
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Teunis, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wallinga, J;Teunis, P
严重急性呼吸综合征（severeacuterespiratorysyndrome，SARS）是世纪出现的第一种严重传染病。现有的SARS流行曲线显示，受影响地区之间在病例总数和流行持续时间方面存在显著差异，即使是几乎同时开始暴发和同时实施类似控制措施的地区也是如此。作者开发了一种基于似然性的估计程序，从观察到的流行曲线推断有效繁殖数量的时间模式。有效繁殖数的精确估计是通过将这种估计方法应用于2003年在香港、越南、新加坡和加拿大发生的SARS疫情的可用数据来获得的。有效繁殖数表明，各受影响地区的流行病具有明显相似的疾病传播潜力和相似的控制措施有效性水平。在控制SARS爆发方面，及时的警报是必不可少的：将控制措施的制定推迟一周将使流行规模增加近两倍，并将使预期的流行持续时间增加4周。
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been the first severe contagious disease to emerge in the 21st century. The available epidemic curves for SARS show marked differences between the affected regions with respect to the total number of cases and epidemic duration, even for those regions in which outbreaks started almost simultaneously and similar control measures were implemented at the same time. The authors developed a likelihood-based estimation procedure that infers the temporal pattern of effective reproduction numbers from an observed epidemic curve. Precise estimates for the effective reproduction numbers were obtained by applying this estimation procedure to available data for SARS outbreaks that occurred in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and Canada in 2003. The effective reproduction numbers revealed that epidemics in the various affected regions were characterized by markedly similar disease transmission potentials and similar levels of effectiveness of control measures. In controlling SARS outbreaks, timely alerts have been essential: Delaying the institution of control measures by 1 week would have nearly tripled the epidemic size and would have increased the expected epidemic duration by 4 weeks.