Trends and seasonality in birth frequency: a comparison of Muslim and Jewish populations in southern Israel: daily time series analysis of 200 009 births, 1988-2005
Trends and seasonality in birth frequency: a comparison of Muslim and Jewish populations in southern Israel: daily time series analysis of 200 009 births, 1988-2005
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DOI：
10.1093/humrep/dep040
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发表时间：
2009-06-01
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Abu-Saad, Kathleen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Friger, Michael;Shoham-Vardi, Ilana;Abu-Saad, Kathleen
本研究的目的是评估自然和人为季节性对居住在同一地理区域的大量穆斯林和犹太妇女的生殖影响。人口包括索罗卡大学医学中心（以色列南部）1988 年 1 月至 2005 年 12 月期间的所有出生（200 009 例出生的 6613 条每日记录）。使用了基于广义线性回归模型的“经典”时间序列技术。在穆斯林人口中观察到斋月期间出生人数的系统增加（P < 0.001），但在犹太人口中则没有。这种“斋月效应”，根据趋势和季节性因素进行调整后，仅在穆斯林经产妇中具有统计显着性（P < 0.001），该模型解释了超过 48% 的方差，而在犹太经产妇中只能解释 7%。穆斯林初产妇的出生季节变化与斋月无关，与犹太初产妇的出生季节变化相似。与斋月相关的妊娠时间没有差异。研究结果表明，朝觐后受孕率有所增加，这支持了生殖行为的季节性受社会文化因素影响大于地理和气候因素的假设，并且可以帮助计划对以色列南部穆斯林人口的孕前干预。
The aim of this study was to assess effects of natural and artificial seasonality on reproduction in a large cohort of Muslim and Jewish women, living in the same geographic area.Population included all births between January 1988 and December 2005 (6613 daily records of 200 009 births) at the Soroka University Medical Center (southern Israel). A 'classical' time series technique based on generalized linear regression models was used.A systematic increase in the number of births during Ramadan was observed in the Muslim (P < 0.001), but not in the Jewish, population. This 'Ramadan effect', adjusted for trend and seasonal factors, was statistically significant only in Muslim multiparae (P < 0.001), where the model explained more than 48% of the variance, compared with 7% in Jewish multiparae. Seasonal birth variations in Muslim primiparae were not associated with Ramadan and were similar to those in Jewish primiparae. There were no differences in length of gestation associated with Ramadan.The findings suggest an increased conception rate following the Hajj pilgrimage, which support the hypothesis that seasonality of reproductive behavior is influenced by socio-cultural factors more than by geographic and climatic factors, and can help plan preconception interventions in Muslim populations in southern Israel.