Reconciling the influence of global climate phenomena on macrofaunal temporal dynamics at a variety of spatial scales
Reconciling the influence of global climate phenomena on macrofaunal temporal dynamics at a variety of spatial scales
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01825.x
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发表时间：
2009-08-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Thrush, S. F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hewitt, J. E.;Thrush, S. F.
确定环境力量对种群动态的相对重要性是生态学家的一个基本问题。对气候变化的生态影响的日益关注强调了确定大尺度环境力量是否均匀地作用于当地人口（层次理论）或跨尺度相互作用影响当地反应（多尺度理论）的重要性。这项研究分析了13年的数据，在一个大型港口内的6个地点的物种丰度，以确定厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）的影响。据观察，与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动直接和间接有关的环境变量是许多物种丰度时间动态的重要预测因素，但观察到的影响在不同地点或物种之间并不一致。虽然几乎所有物种都受到大的时间和空间尺度变化的影响，但较小的时间尺度，特定于位置的环境变量（如风生波浪暴露和浊度）通常也很重要，使我们的模型解释的变异性增加了25%。与许多其他大尺度变量一样，对ENSO反应的一般性受到跨时间和空间的相互作用的影响，尺度异质性较小。因此，这项研究表明，大尺度的气候因素之间的相互作用，如ENSO，较小的尺度变化，将决定在大的空间尺度上的响应的一致性，并控制我们的能力，预测气候变化对沿海和河口社区的影响。
Determining the relative importance of environmental forces on population dynamics is a fundamental question for ecologists. Growing concern over the ecological effects of climate change emphasizes the importance of defining whether broad-scale environmental forces uniformly act upon local populations (hierarchy theory) or cross-scale interactions influence local responses (multiscale theory). This study analyses 13 years of data on species abundances at six sites within a large harbour to determine the effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Environmental variables both directly and indirectly related to ENSO were observed to be important predictors of the temporal dynamics of abundance in many species, but the observed effects were not consistent across sites or species. While nearly all species were affected by large temporal and spatial scale variability, smaller temporal scale, location-specific environmental variables (such as wind-generated wave exposure and turbidity) were also generally important, increasing the variability explained by our models by up to 25%. As with many other broad-scale variables, generality of response to ENSO is affected by interactions across time and space with smaller scale heterogeneity. This study therefore suggests that the degree of interaction between broad-scale climatic factors, such as ENSO, with smaller scale variability, will determine the consistency of responses over large spatial scales, and control our ability to predict effects of climate change on coastal and estuarine communities.